ST Alpha - "work with me here. CUrrently, the subset of new cases that are NOT H1N1 is very small." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Work with me here, because this is about to get complicated, but I think you can handle it...." by TWuG

work with me here. CUrrently, the subset of new cases that are NOT H1N1 is very small.

Posted by loosiflu (aka loosilu2) May 30 '09, 15:44

the vast majority of new Flu A is H1N1.

Therefore, it is most likely that I have H1N1.

I am not claiming certainty at all.

Responses:

You keep asking Redmond to admit to something you aren't claiming is a certainty? -- nm - TWuG May 30, 15:45 26
- *pours TWuG a stiff drink* - Will Hunting May 30, 15:46 21
  - I'm just Remond's back up here. I couldn't possibly care less if she actually does have H1N1, I just find it amusing that she is arguing - TWuG May 30, 15:50 4
    - have you not caught on that I'm really bored? -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:51
    - :) I might have a new strip club wing man in the making. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:50 2
      - Me? Worst wingman ever. I need a wingman to hook my wife. - TWuG May 30, 15:54 1
        
        Wing men elevate both men's skills. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:56
  - I'm not arguing law. I'm arguing biology. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:47 15
    - I'm arguing fact vs supposition. - Will Hunting May 30, 15:49 14
      - biology is about probability, and I'm well inside it. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:50 13
        
        But you could still be a standard case of Flu A. Just because the odds are small doesn't mean you are right. - TWuG May 30, 15:53 7
        
        cut down the 15% again because I got the flu shot, which covers 90% of flu A. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:55 6
        
        But is it 90% effective? Maybe it targets 90% of flu A but is only 75% effective in innoculating you against those strains. Where's that put your - TWuG May 30, 15:58 3
        
        nice try! only 10% of new cases that are not H1N1 are in patients who got the shot. That means there's only 1.5% chance I have regular flu A. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 16:02 2
        
        Exactly! You just showed you can't be sure. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 16:10 1
        
        in biology, there is no 100% sure. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 16:18
        
        The flu shot was less effective this year. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:56 1
        
        completely untrue, it was ineffective last year but very effective this year. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:57
        
        Ya know what else is probability? Cards. and I just lost a 19:1 shot today so until you got the winner - Will Hunting May 30, 15:52
        
        So was I until the failed test result -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:51 3
        
        I passed more tests than you. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:52 2
        
        Not enough tests however. You need one more -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:53 1
        
        CDC won't do the test, but they assume I have H1N1. Good enough for them. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:53
- I want him to admit it's likely. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:46 3
  - Only thing you are getting is it's possible. Not going to get a likely without a test result. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:47 2
    - then we're not hooking upl -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:48 1
      - Well that's because you are too stubourn. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:48

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work with me here. CUrrently, the subset of new cases that are NOT H1N1 is very small.

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