ST Alpha - "But you could still be a standard case of Flu A. Just because the odds are small doesn't mean you are right." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "biology is about probability, and I'm well inside it. -- nm" by loosiflu

But you could still be a standard case of Flu A. Just because the odds are small doesn't mean you are right.

Posted by TWuG May 30 '09, 15:53

And probability follows the rules of logic.

85% of cases of Flu A may now be H1N1, but that means 15% are not and you don't know if you are in the 85% or the 15%.

Asking someone to admit to something being true with a 15% chance of error is illogical.

Responses:

cut down the 15% again because I got the flu shot, which covers 90% of flu A. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:55 6
- But is it 90% effective? Maybe it targets 90% of flu A but is only 75% effective in innoculating you against those strains. Where's that put your - TWuG May 30, 15:58 3
  - nice try! only 10% of new cases that are not H1N1 are in patients who got the shot. That means there's only 1.5% chance I have regular flu A. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 16:02 2
    - Exactly! You just showed you can't be sure. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 16:10 1
      - in biology, there is no 100% sure. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 16:18
- The flu shot was less effective this year. -- nm - ? Redmond May 30, 15:56 1
  - completely untrue, it was ineffective last year but very effective this year. -- nm - loosiflu May 30, 15:57

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But you could still be a standard case of Flu A. Just because the odds are small doesn't mean you are right.

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