So, all the harsh abortion cases... lend themselves to a substantial amount of political theater even within the judiciary and John Roberts
Posted by
Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz)
May 16 '19, 10:52
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Some key facts:
The GOP has benefited from a very enthusiastic core demographic hell-bent on repeal for the last 45 years. There's real question how engaged those people will be post-repeal as far as coming out to vote. They're still voting GOP, but are they going to care enough if their core moral issue no longer exist?
John Roberts voted to uphold Obamacare after all the tea leaves had him rejecting it. It was noticeable in Scalia's dissent how Roberts got from Point A to Point B.
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Suppositions:
John Roberts had an eye on the 2012 elections; knowing Obamacare was the big issue of the cycle. Throwing it out would mobilize the Left and tamp down the Right's enthusiasm/rage reflex. Keeping it kept the Right's involvement high; even if unsuccessful. He did this possibly via the tortured and inconsistent path Scalia pointed out in his dissent.
Roberts is presumed to want to reverse Roe but also indicates an awareness of his branch of government's role in history and indicates some level of not being the story.
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What If:
These cases are too radical, too soon, even for some on the Right. Pat Robertson even is opposed to the Alabama case. If Roberts reverse Roe on a case like this, it's one of those whip-saw moments that Roberts seems to want to try to avoid. If the supposition that he tried to 'game' the Obamacare 2012 decision for the GOP long-term interests is valid, also reversing Roe on a case like this actively submarines the long-term interests of the GOP. Democrats would be highly energized, and the core supporters of Pro-Life 'won' and will see a decrease in excitement.
Add in, if they fail to reverse, they will be maligned by many on the Right, and as much as people want to say they are impartial; when you malign someone, that impacts their views of you and your cause. It's human.
IMO, the GOP Governors signing these bills are doing their side a dis-service...smaller, incremental changes to drag abortion rights to the Right has a much better chance of finding success within the current High Court led by John Roberts.
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