ST Alpha - "They don't adjust so basically you're just buying to the first 4 weekends. Use a rough 2.7 of the opening and see where it sits." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Can someone who HSXs help me out? I do NOT understand the movie multipliers any more. " by colin

They don't adjust so basically you're just buying to the first 4 weekends. Use a rough 2.7 of the opening and see where it sits.

Posted by Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz) Aug 8 '19, 09:52

Say it opens to $100mil...if the price is above 270, it's likely a short because not much gets the 2.7mult.

It's just that rough guess.

Responses:

yeah, the non-adjust is... weird. i occasionally see multiplier discussions. thanks. -- nm - colin Aug 8, 09:55
More or less. Also, sometimes the Movies board will have discussions about projections. Roger More is the man for this. -- nm - Shaun Aug 8, 09:54 7
- I think a lot of the recent Monday drop is things are just tanking...there's little guesswork when a movie is 3x as high as it's opening. - Will Hunting Aug 8, 09:55 6
  - No adjusts means that lots of people aren't playing on the weekend. -- nm - Roger More Aug 8, 10:15
  - movies don't seem to be as leggy as they used to, esp kids films. -- nm - colin Aug 8, 10:00 4
    - There are very very few post-OW longs these days. -- nm - Shaun Aug 8, 10:04
    - They aren't. HSX started at 2.9 and dropped to 2.7 over the years and even that is likely too high. - Will Hunting Aug 8, 10:04 2
      - Even the MCU stuff is ~2.3, on average, if I recall a discussion from back when Endgame was in theatres. - Shaun Aug 8, 10:06 1
        
        Sounds about right. Overall, they average 2.75x opening weekend (370mil total vs 135mil open) - Will Hunting Aug 8, 10:10

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