ST Alpha - "Polling question. In a poll, if the Margin of Error is 4% and the poll comes in 51-49..." (Reading a Post)

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Polling question. In a poll, if the Margin of Error is 4% and the poll comes in 51-49...

Posted by Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz) Nov 8 '19, 07:25

Does that mean that 55-45 is as likely as 51-49 which is as likely as 47-53? Are the MOE ranges all equally likely? I am not sure how to phrase it otherwise?

Responses:

The way I've always interpreted it (I have no idea if this is correct or not) - Strongbad, Champ Champ Nov 8, 07:44 2
- The actual result has an effect on the MOE as well - Reagen Nov 8, 07:52 1
  - Cool, thanks. -- nm - Strongbad, Champ Champ Nov 8, 07:54
No, if I’m remembering my statistics class correctly. I forget if it’s a standard distribution or something else, but basically it’s a bell curve -- (edited) - znufrii, human scum Nov 8, 07:30 4
- There's a 95% chance that the true number is somewhere between 55 and 47 -- nm - JackDawson Nov 8, 07:39 1
  - Right, but to his question in the IM, the probability of it being at either end is significantly lower than the middle, no? - znufrii, human scum Nov 8, 07:48
- That was... pretty straightforward znufrii -- nm - con_carne Nov 8, 07:39 1
  - Umm....thanks? -- nm - znufrii, human scum Nov 8, 07:39

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Polling question. In a poll, if the Margin of Error is 4% and the poll comes in 51-49...

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