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In response to "Polling question. In a poll, if the Margin of Error is 4% and the poll comes in 51-49..." by Will Hunting

No, if I’m remembering my statistics class correctly. I forget if it’s a standard distribution or something else, but basically it’s a bell curve -- (edited)

Where 95% of the expected results fall within the moe of the peak. I’m at a loss to remember the calculations for the edge case probability though.

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