A thought about Transformers 2 box office (as I dare not post this over at HSX)
Posted by
Jelly
Jun 7 '09, 17:28
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The first one did 155M in six days, over a holiday week, with an added boost from some late shows on Monday. So really, 155M in 6 1/2 days. I think it's reasonable to assume that the second one will match that for a 5-day total. In fact, let's call it 160.
It should be monstrously frontloaded, due to the sequel factor and the lack of a holiday in comparison to the first one. Harry Potter 5's Wednesday record (44 and change) should be shaking in its boots. I think it'll do about 49M Wednesday, then drop about 50% to 24M on Thursday. Then, even with a slight bump for the weekend, I see it as 29 Friday, 32.5 Saturday, 25.5 Sunday.
So 49, 24, 29, 32.5, 25.5. Adds up to 160. Seems pretty reasonable to me.
The adjust? 73 + (87*2.7) = 307.90. A 71-cent long.
Please shoot holes in my argument. I want it to make me lots of H$, but I think the day-to-day breakdown is reasonable, and I don't see it soundly beating 50M on a Wednesday in June.
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