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ty, I’m assuming that Warren stays above 15%

Posted by spamlet Jan 14 '20, 10:12

If she drops below that and her supporters get scattered then it’s a different ballgame.

Amazing Amy is non-viable and I’d imagine most of her supporters go to Pete as he’s the next most moderate. Maybe some to Biden and some to Warren. She may become a kingmaker in the process.

Responses:

Iowa is so scattered at this point, I don't really know what to expect. - ty97 Jan 14, 10:14 26
- I didn’t really mention the media narrative but that’s a part of it. - spamlet Jan 14, 10:18 1
  - I know you didn't mention it, but it really does matter, alas. - ty97 Jan 14, 10:58
- I forsee The Ruthless Rise of Cuzzin Todd -- nm - prayformojo Jan 14, 10:16 2
  - *tents fingers* Excellent. -- nm - Cuzzin Todd Jan 14, 11:04 1
    - Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz... the rule of three! -- nm - Roger More Jan 14, 11:16
- So - can someone remind me again why in the blue hell Iowa has such a huge hand in determining who runs for president? -- nm - Turd Ferguson Jan 14, 10:15 19
  - If you ain't first, you're last! -- nm - Iowa Jan 14, 12:05
  - Gotta start somewhere. -- nm - Cuzzin Todd Jan 14, 11:04
  - It's a large enough state to not be door to door campaigning; small enough to be a reasonable test of organization. - Will Hunting Jan 14, 10:42 1
    - and they have a great state fair -- nm - decline Jan 14, 10:44
  - Tradition. But Iowa isn't terribly representative of the Democratic voters nationwide. It's a caucus, so it skews older and much whiter - TWuG Jan 14, 10:25 8
    - Also, part of why it was a big deal that Obama won Iowa in 2008. -- nm - Roger More Jan 14, 10:34 7
      - (In a wiki-hole now - "name the winner of the 1992 Iowa Democratic primary" is a fiendishly tough question) -- nm - Roger More Jan 14, 10:39 6
        
        I'll guess Dick Gephardt. -- nm - Brrrron Jan 14, 10:41 1
        
        This was my guess. -- nm - Tim Jan 14, 10:42
        
        Wasn't that Harkin? -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 14, 10:41 3
        
        Yeah, it's the main reason why he ran. He thought that slam dunk win might trigger momentum. -- nm - David Jan 14, 10:41 2
        
        Oh right, Gephardt was '88. -- nm - Brrrron Jan 14, 10:42 1
        
        92 was the year of Tsongas! -- nm - David Jan 14, 10:47
  - Useful barometer ("It's pronounced 'thermometer.'") for forecasting the middle-ground, lower-middle class Will It Play In Peoria vote. - Brrrron Jan 14, 10:21
  - I think it being the first caucus is what makes it noteworthy. I'm not sure if it has as much a hand in determining aside from trends. Trump lost Iowa - Diva Jan 14, 10:18 4
    - Right. People are far too obsessed with Iowa right now. Super Tuesday is what matters. -- nm - David Jan 14, 10:24 3
      - To a point, yes. There is so much hype about IA/NH (to a much lesser extent NV/SC) that the field will likely reduce by Super Tuesday. - ty97 Jan 14, 10:55 2
        
        Honestly, after NH, if we're not down to 4 (at most), someone's had a really good IA/NH who wasn't expected. - Will Hunting Jan 14, 11:01
        
        Realistically, the field's been down to four for a while. It's to Pete's credit that he lifted himself into the upper echelon. -- nm - David Jan 14, 10:59
- I'd expect corn. -- nm - Brrrron Jan 14, 10:15

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ty, I’m assuming that Warren stays above 15%

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