ST Alpha - "I can't decide how much of this is fear of real change vs. fear that Bernie can't win. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Amy Klobuchar is dropping out of the presidential race, will fly to Dallas tonight to join Biden and endorse -- nm" by decline

I can't decide how much of this is fear of real change vs. fear that Bernie can't win. -- nm

Posted by David (aka David) Mar 2 '20, 10:38

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Responses:

There's gotta be some levity in a scenario where everyone thinks "there's no chance [Bernie] will win" and then he does (again). -- nm - Max Mar 2, 10:43
both? how the ratio plays out - I can't tell -- nm - Pippy -with a tin foil hat Mar 2, 10:42
absolute abject fear that Bernie cant win. -- nm - Jovian Mar 2, 10:41 44
- Exactly. -- nm - Spawn Mar 2, 10:52
- That would be strange since he's the dominant one in polls. - David Mar 2, 10:43 42
  - That's why you're down to 2 and he's not really that dominant. He's first among a field that was splintering a moderate vote. The moderate - pmb Mar 2, 11:11 4
    - thank you for saying what I was thinking in a way normal people can understand. -- nm - amanda Mar 2, 11:16 3
      - ;) This still assumes that Bloomberg does the right thing now. He's still the darling of the never Trump republicans. Biden needs Bloomberg's money - pmb Mar 2, 11:21 2
        
        I am truly hoping that the consolidation of moderates behind Biden causes Bloomberg to majorly underperform tomorrow. Regardless of Sanders/Biden..... - ty97 Mar 2, 11:26 1
        
        Re-reading this I'm not sure I make much sense. I'm saying whether Sanders or Biden is your guy, I want Bloomberg out. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:28
  - maybe because the adults -- to this point -- have been splitting their votes? now that it's basically a two man race (I love you liz, but sorry) - amanda Mar 2, 11:06
  - except he's underperforming with lower actual numbers than he did in 2016, granted it's only New Hampshire -- (link) - Remlik Mar 2, 10:53 1
    - I was the one who made this point on ST at the time. He's since recovered strongly. -- nm - David Mar 2, 11:00
  - I am caught up from lunch now. -- nm* - Spawn Mar 2, 10:52
  - Electoral massacre. -- nm - Jovian Mar 2, 10:47 1
    - Strange. You're normally so upbeat. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:48
  - I feel like we talk about this every four years, but I throw general election head-to-head matchup polls to the wind at this early stage -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:46 22
    - RCP has 20 Clinton vs Trump polls in 1Q16 (January to March). The results - ty97 Mar 2, 10:49 10
      - She won by 2.1% even with the Comey bombshell just before the election. The national polls were right, imo. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:54 4
        
        The national polls near the election were quite accurate, yes, 3.2% average vs 2.1% actual. The January-March polls were NOT predictive of November. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:57 3
        
        Polls couldn't have predicted what happened with Russia and Comey. You're negating something for things beyond the parameters of the thing. - David Mar 2, 11:00 2
        
        I'm not a 2016 poll basher. At all. I am a basher of relying on any head to head GE polls (2016 or any other year!) this early in the race -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:01 1
        
        I agree with ty. - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:09
      - I mean, the polls were right. She won. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 4
        
        You're being disingenuous here. You and I both know she won the popular vote. By a few points. NOT by the margins in those polls -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:53 3
        
        I honestly feel I'm not. I'm making an important point that the polls were right despite her having some of the worst unfavorables and black swans eve -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:57
        
        Again, I think that's partly to do with Comey "opening the investigation" again, and her horrible unfavorable numbers. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:56 1
        
        To your IM: A general election campaign will happen between now and November. - ty97 Mar 2, 10:58
    - They're of limited value, but when one candidate consistently outperforms the rest, it matters. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:48 9
      - The polls I've seen have Sanders and Biden relatively even (slight edge to Sanders) in head to heads vs Trump right now. There is, I would argue, more - ty97 Mar 2, 10:52 8
        
        I just feel like bernie is more like trump. always right and unwilling to listen to reason. I don't want that again. I don't want biden, but - amanda Mar 2, 10:54 7
        
        My gut says VP has to be a woman (regardless who the candidate is). *DEFINITELY* can't be two white dudes. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:02 6
        
        I'll be shocked if it isn't Stacy Abrams -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:06 5
        
        based on the last election, Klobuchar traverses the more important electoral terrain -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:08 4
        
        I think Stacy is a better fit for Bernie. -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:10 3
        
        I think she isn’t. For her. - Will Hunting Mar 2, 11:20 1
        
        She's spoken publicly about national political intentions for a long time - Strongbad Mar 2, 12:35
        
        I'll agree with that. -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:12
    - yeah, early general election polls break the wind -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 10:48
  - I think that there are more "never bernies" than "never bidens" -- does that make sense? -- nm - amanda Mar 2, 10:46 2
    - yes. -- nm - Diva Mar 2, 10:51
    - Absolutely. Berniebros do their candidate a huge disservice. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:47
  - People haven’t learned enough yet. - Will Hunting Mar 2, 10:45 4
    - If the choices are that and tyrannical... -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:46 3
      - they will pick tyrannical - every time -- nm - Pippy -with a tin foil hat Mar 2, 10:47 2
        
        It's looking likely that we'll find out. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 1
        
        Yes it does. And while I hope Pippy is wrong (love you Pippy!) I fear she may be right. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:00
Fear of loss of power -- nm - psilotum Mar 2, 10:40
yeah. Definitely a mixture, but what the mix is, don't know. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:39

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