ST Alpha - "That would be strange since he's the dominant one in polls." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "absolute abject fear that Bernie cant win. -- nm" by Jovian

That would be strange since he's the dominant one in polls.

Posted by David (aka David) Mar 2 '20, 10:43

Only Biden is even comparable.

Responses:

That's why you're down to 2 and he's not really that dominant. He's first among a field that was splintering a moderate vote. The moderate - pmb Mar 2, 11:11 4
- thank you for saying what I was thinking in a way normal people can understand. -- nm - amanda Mar 2, 11:16 3
  - ;) This still assumes that Bloomberg does the right thing now. He's still the darling of the never Trump republicans. Biden needs Bloomberg's money - pmb Mar 2, 11:21 2
    - I am truly hoping that the consolidation of moderates behind Biden causes Bloomberg to majorly underperform tomorrow. Regardless of Sanders/Biden..... - ty97 Mar 2, 11:26 1
      - Re-reading this I'm not sure I make much sense. I'm saying whether Sanders or Biden is your guy, I want Bloomberg out. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:28
maybe because the adults -- to this point -- have been splitting their votes? now that it's basically a two man race (I love you liz, but sorry) - amanda Mar 2, 11:06
except he's underperforming with lower actual numbers than he did in 2016, granted it's only New Hampshire -- (link) - Remlik Mar 2, 10:53 1
- I was the one who made this point on ST at the time. He's since recovered strongly. -- nm - David Mar 2, 11:00
I am caught up from lunch now. -- nm* - Spawn Mar 2, 10:52
Electoral massacre. -- nm - Jovian Mar 2, 10:47 1
- Strange. You're normally so upbeat. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:48
I feel like we talk about this every four years, but I throw general election head-to-head matchup polls to the wind at this early stage -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:46 22
- RCP has 20 Clinton vs Trump polls in 1Q16 (January to March). The results - ty97 Mar 2, 10:49 10
  - She won by 2.1% even with the Comey bombshell just before the election. The national polls were right, imo. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:54 4
    - The national polls near the election were quite accurate, yes, 3.2% average vs 2.1% actual. The January-March polls were NOT predictive of November. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:57 3
      - Polls couldn't have predicted what happened with Russia and Comey. You're negating something for things beyond the parameters of the thing. - David Mar 2, 11:00 2
        
        I'm not a 2016 poll basher. At all. I am a basher of relying on any head to head GE polls (2016 or any other year!) this early in the race -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:01 1
        
        I agree with ty. - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:09
  - I mean, the polls were right. She won. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 4
    - You're being disingenuous here. You and I both know she won the popular vote. By a few points. NOT by the margins in those polls -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:53 3
      - I honestly feel I'm not. I'm making an important point that the polls were right despite her having some of the worst unfavorables and black swans eve -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:57
      - Again, I think that's partly to do with Comey "opening the investigation" again, and her horrible unfavorable numbers. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:56 1
        
        To your IM: A general election campaign will happen between now and November. - ty97 Mar 2, 10:58
- They're of limited value, but when one candidate consistently outperforms the rest, it matters. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:48 9
  - The polls I've seen have Sanders and Biden relatively even (slight edge to Sanders) in head to heads vs Trump right now. There is, I would argue, more - ty97 Mar 2, 10:52 8
    - I just feel like bernie is more like trump. always right and unwilling to listen to reason. I don't want that again. I don't want biden, but - amanda Mar 2, 10:54 7
      - My gut says VP has to be a woman (regardless who the candidate is). *DEFINITELY* can't be two white dudes. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:02 6
        
        I'll be shocked if it isn't Stacy Abrams -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:06 5
        
        based on the last election, Klobuchar traverses the more important electoral terrain -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:08 4
        
        I think Stacy is a better fit for Bernie. -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:10 3
        
        I think she isn’t. For her. - Will Hunting Mar 2, 11:20 1
        
        She's spoken publicly about national political intentions for a long time - Strongbad Mar 2, 12:35
        
        I'll agree with that. -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:12
- yeah, early general election polls break the wind -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 10:48
I think that there are more "never bernies" than "never bidens" -- does that make sense? -- nm - amanda Mar 2, 10:46 2
- yes. -- nm - Diva Mar 2, 10:51
- Absolutely. Berniebros do their candidate a huge disservice. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:47
People haven’t learned enough yet. - Will Hunting Mar 2, 10:45 4
- If the choices are that and tyrannical... -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:46 3
  - they will pick tyrannical - every time -- nm - Pippy -with a tin foil hat Mar 2, 10:47 2
    - It's looking likely that we'll find out. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 1
      - Yes it does. And while I hope Pippy is wrong (love you Pippy!) I fear she may be right. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:00

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That would be strange since he's the dominant one in polls.

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