ST Alpha - "I feel like we talk about this every four years, but I throw general election head-to-head matchup polls to the wind at this early stage -- nm" (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Login
Create Account

Search Dr. S. Talk
TT/ST Wiki
How Well Do You Know ...

RSS Feed

Hosting by DigitalOcean

Support ST on Ko-Fi

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 161

In response to "That would be strange since he's the dominant one in polls." by David

I feel like we talk about this every four years, but I throw general election head-to-head matchup polls to the wind at this early stage -- nm

Posted by ty97 Mar 2 '20, 10:46

(No message)

Responses:

RCP has 20 Clinton vs Trump polls in 1Q16 (January to March). The results - ty97 Mar 2, 10:49 10
- She won by 2.1% even with the Comey bombshell just before the election. The national polls were right, imo. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:54 4
  - The national polls near the election were quite accurate, yes, 3.2% average vs 2.1% actual. The January-March polls were NOT predictive of November. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:57 3
    - Polls couldn't have predicted what happened with Russia and Comey. You're negating something for things beyond the parameters of the thing. - David Mar 2, 11:00 2
      - I'm not a 2016 poll basher. At all. I am a basher of relying on any head to head GE polls (2016 or any other year!) this early in the race -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:01 1
        
        I agree with ty. - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:09
- I mean, the polls were right. She won. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 4
  - You're being disingenuous here. You and I both know she won the popular vote. By a few points. NOT by the margins in those polls -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:53 3
    - I honestly feel I'm not. I'm making an important point that the polls were right despite her having some of the worst unfavorables and black swans eve -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:57
    - Again, I think that's partly to do with Comey "opening the investigation" again, and her horrible unfavorable numbers. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:56 1
      - To your IM: A general election campaign will happen between now and November. - ty97 Mar 2, 10:58
They're of limited value, but when one candidate consistently outperforms the rest, it matters. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:48 9
- The polls I've seen have Sanders and Biden relatively even (slight edge to Sanders) in head to heads vs Trump right now. There is, I would argue, more - ty97 Mar 2, 10:52 8
  - I just feel like bernie is more like trump. always right and unwilling to listen to reason. I don't want that again. I don't want biden, but - amanda Mar 2, 10:54 7
    - My gut says VP has to be a woman (regardless who the candidate is). *DEFINITELY* can't be two white dudes. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:02 6
      - I'll be shocked if it isn't Stacy Abrams -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:06 5
        
        based on the last election, Klobuchar traverses the more important electoral terrain -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:08 4
        
        I think Stacy is a better fit for Bernie. -- nm - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:10 3
        
        I think she isn’t. For her. - Will Hunting Mar 2, 11:20 1
        
        She's spoken publicly about national political intentions for a long time - Strongbad Mar 2, 12:35
        
        I'll agree with that. -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 11:12
yeah, early general election polls break the wind -- nm - crash davis Mar 2, 10:48

Post a message top

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.