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In response to "I feel like we talk about this every four years, but I throw general election head-to-head matchup polls to the wind at this early stage -- nm" by ty97

RCP has 20 Clinton vs Trump polls in 1Q16 (January to March). The results

Posted by ty97 Mar 2 '20, 10:49

Clinton +9
Clinton +12
Clinton +7
Clinton +11
Clinton +18
Clinton +6
Clinton +10
Clinton +12
Clinton +10
Clinton +9
Clinton +13
Clinton +5
Clinton +8
Clinton +5
Trump +2
Clinton +1
Clinton +5
Clinton +7
Clinton +10
Trump +3

Responses:

She won by 2.1% even with the Comey bombshell just before the election. The national polls were right, imo. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:54 4
- The national polls near the election were quite accurate, yes, 3.2% average vs 2.1% actual. The January-March polls were NOT predictive of November. -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:57 3
  - Polls couldn't have predicted what happened with Russia and Comey. You're negating something for things beyond the parameters of the thing. - David Mar 2, 11:00 2
    - I'm not a 2016 poll basher. At all. I am a basher of relying on any head to head GE polls (2016 or any other year!) this early in the race -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 11:01 1
      - I agree with ty. - Strongbad Mar 2, 11:09
I mean, the polls were right. She won. -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:49 4
- You're being disingenuous here. You and I both know she won the popular vote. By a few points. NOT by the margins in those polls -- nm - ty97 Mar 2, 10:53 3
  - I honestly feel I'm not. I'm making an important point that the polls were right despite her having some of the worst unfavorables and black swans eve -- nm - David Mar 2, 10:57
  - Again, I think that's partly to do with Comey "opening the investigation" again, and her horrible unfavorable numbers. - Inigo Mar 2, 10:56 1
    - To your IM: A general election campaign will happen between now and November. - ty97 Mar 2, 10:58

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RCP has 20 Clinton vs Trump polls in 1Q16 (January to March). The results

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