ST Alpha - "assuming those percents are per day, and 100 is the day 0 figure (so ten solid days of increase, not starting on day 1, ending day 10)." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Can I get a math check?" by David

assuming those percents are per day, and 100 is the day 0 figure (so ten solid days of increase, not starting on day 1, ending day 10).

Posted by mafic Mar 15 '20, 22:05

scenario 1: 259.37
scenario 2: 5,766.50

Responses:

Perfect, thanks. It's 1 am, and I can't be wrong about health calculations. -- nm - David Mar 15, 22:07 6
- (This is the number of infected at 10 percent growth vs. 50 percent growth after 10 days.) -- nm - David Mar 15, 22:08 5
  - By my calcs, at 50 percent growth rate, all Americans would have COVID-19 on day 37. It's day 158 at 10 percent. -- nm* - David Mar 15, 22:13 4
    - it's more complicated (and most likely slower) than those. what you need here is some Gaussian process regression! - mafic Mar 15, 22:27 2
      - Oh, I'm aware, but I'm just having to explain the concept of flattening the curve right now. - David Mar 15, 22:43
      - and dead people can't transmit anymore -- nm - zeitgeist Mar 15, 22:34
    - And I have the current rate over the last two days as 25% and 30%. - David Mar 15, 22:17

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