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1: Dec 11, 14:43
2: Dec 11, 11:29
3: Dec 11, 07:59
4: Dec 10, 18:15
5: Dec 10, 12:28
6: Dec 10, 09:30
7: Dec 10, 05:59
8: Dec 9, 17:07
9: Dec 9, 13:47
10: Dec 9, 10:33
11: Dec 9, 07:33
12: Dec 8, 17:50
13: Dec 8, 10:32
14: Dec 8, 06:23
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17: Dec 6, 14:40
18: Dec 6, 10:07
19: Dec 6, 07:32
20: Dec 5, 19:48
Posts: 156
In response to
"
assuming those percents are per day, and 100 is the day 0 figure (so ten solid days of increase, not starting on day 1, ending day 10).
"
by
mafic
Perfect, thanks. It's 1 am, and I can't be wrong about health calculations. -- nm
Posted by
David (aka David)
Mar 15 '20, 22:07
(No message)
Responses:
(This is the number of infected at 10 percent growth vs. 50 percent growth after 10 days.) -- nm
-
David
Mar 15, 22:08
5
By my calcs, at 50 percent growth rate, all Americans would have COVID-19 on day 37. It's day 158 at 10 percent. -- nm*
-
David
Mar 15, 22:13
4
it's more complicated (and most likely slower) than those. what you need here is some Gaussian process regression!
-
mafic
Mar 15, 22:27
2
Oh, I'm aware, but I'm just having to explain the concept of flattening the curve right now.
-
David
Mar 15, 22:43
and dead people can't transmit anymore -- nm
-
zeitgeist
Mar 15, 22:34
And I have the current rate over the last two days as 25% and 30%.
-
David
Mar 15, 22:17
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