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In response to
"By my calcs, at 50 percent growth rate, all Americans would have COVID-19 on day 37. It's day 158 at 10 percent. -- nm*"
by
David
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it's more complicated (and most likely slower) than those. what you need here is some Gaussian process regression!
Posted by
mafic
Mar 15 '20, 22:27
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for starters you'll hit a point where your transmission rates plateau - like where infected people are mainly interacting with other infected people. you should really also take spatial distribution and population density into account.
link below is the weird thing mineral resource estimation and epidemiology have in common. effectively it's weighting by distance from a known point. useful for predicting values as you move away from that point.
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Responses:
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