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In response to
"I keep seeing the ‘We are on the same track as Italy, just ten days behind’ talking point but is that really a logical comparison? "
by
Volnelk
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It's a mathematical curiosity as much as anything, but it has worked remarkably well as an expectations model thus far.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Mar 17 '20, 21:17
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When I wrote an article published on March 7th, we had just reached 100k overall. The US was at 338 cases.
We're about to hit 200k (198 at the moment), and the US is up to 6,362.
The split is important here because the US was at 3,680 on 3/15, the equivalent of 3/4 in Italy. On 3/5 and 3/6, Italy increased to 4,636, which is 50% growth in two days or 25% per day.
The US increased in cases from 3,680 to 6,382, which is 2,682 cases in two days. That's a shade under 42.2% growth in two days, which 21.1% daily.
That information hints that we're progressing slower than Italy. However, the percentage thing that you reference is problematic for a larger country.
At 21.1% daily growth, the US is at 42,800 cases in 10 days. Italy is only at 31,506 overall. Right now, the math suggests that the US will get it worse than anyone except China.
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