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In response to
"This poll has always had him lower than the average, but it's at 35% -- (link)"
by
Reagen
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And 538 regards that company as employing a solid polling method.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Mar 20 '20, 10:31
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Overall, Trump's numbers are universally down. However, two outlier polls that aren't as highly regarded have kept his numbers up.
The Harris poll that Trump mentioned the other day is clearly statistical noise involving MOE. He's at 53% in it, which is the first poll of any kind over the past six months that grades him so highly. Other than it, 51% has been his max. That poll gets a C+ grade.
Then, YouGov has had him at -8, -8, -6, and -11. Then, it randomly brought in a -1 for the latest one.
The most current polls used on 538, Trump's at -14, -22, -9, -14, -6, and -7 (the last two being older polls that are from before the world imploded).
So, his numbers *should* be way down, only he has those saving grace outliers, which somehow have him at -2 and, more shockingly, +3. That last one gave him a -5 only days before. In the -2 one, he'd been -9. It's a B- poll that costs only a modest amount in 538's calcs.
Overall, reputable polls actually have Trump taking on water. But the picture gets muddied by a couple of curious results. It's *possible* that people think he's handled the crisis well It's more likely that poor polling methodology has led to incorrect evaluations.
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