ST Alpha - "Guys, for the last few days I have a seen a lot of people talking about that the moratility rate is converging to 1%." (Reading a Post)

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Guys, for the last few days I have a seen a lot of people talking about that the moratility rate is converging to 1%.

Posted by Marlowe Mar 24 '20, 15:39

Nobody that I trust, mind you.

But that doesn't mean they are wrong, just that I have been looking at the wrong numbers.

Does anyone know what they are talking about?

Responses:

I have been using broad, generalized numbers. Absolutely, no nuance to hot spots, demos, etc. Just a very broad brush to get a general idea. -- nm - VMan Mar 24, 15:54 3
- Still amazing (in the sad way) numbers. This is no flu. The numbers are already shocking based on a fairly robust response. But IANAD. -- nm - VMan Mar 24, 15:57 2
  - Certain people are using other numbers (flu, cars, etc.) to basically say, no big deal, that's life. IMHO, imagine numbers if COVID left unchecked. -- nm - VMan Mar 24, 16:01 1
    - Yep -- nm - Marlowe Mar 24, 16:05
Total deaths/confirmed cases will overstate the death rate. They’re (probably?) looking at places with widespread testing and extrapolating. -- nm - mafic Mar 24, 15:46 3
- Probably, by the looks of it, they are looking at the numbers in the US, it seems. Large enough population, seems to be steady around 1-2%. - Marlowe Mar 24, 16:00 2
  - Also a death rate of 1% while not Italy's 9%, is not great if the flu is .3% -- nm - JackDawson Mar 24, 16:10 1
    - Also, we simply have no idea of the long-term impacts for those that recovered. (NM) - Marlowe Mar 24, 16:12
I'm having trouble trusting any numbers at this point -- nm - ty97 Mar 24, 15:43 1
- Yes, of course. - Marlowe Mar 24, 15:52
That's an average, is an order of magnitude more lethal than the flu, and understates the danger to the sick and elderly. -- nm - TWuG Mar 24, 15:42
The rate in Florida is 1.2%. 1,412 total positive cases confirmed so far, and 18 deaths. -- nm - JaxSean Mar 24, 15:42 4
- I don't know how people can definitely claim the rate is going to be this or that - Reagen Mar 24, 15:44 3
  - And there have definitely been deaths that they couldn't correlate to the virus yet -- nm - Tim Mar 24, 15:55 1
    - And they should not count! Really, nothing counts but the market. -- nm - Drumpf Mar 24, 15:58
  - I agree but here's some #s anyway -- (link) - mud Mar 24, 15:51

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Guys, for the last few days I have a seen a lot of people talking about that the moratility rate is converging to 1%.

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