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JF, the number of cases today doesn't allow for modeling. -- (edited)

Posted by David (aka David) Mar 28 '20, 19:44

How many were there yesterday and the day before? It's growth that matters here.

I'll put it in math terms.

If you have 20% daily growth, your number tomorrow is your current number (X) multiplied by 1.2. We will call that output Y.

Then, the number the following day is tomorrow's number, Y, multiplied by 1.2.

So, it's really X*(1.2^2). After 10 days, the calc would be X*(1.2^10).

Now, run the same calculations with a growth rate of 10% and 50%.

One is X*(1.1^10), and the other is X*(1.5^10).

You say that there are 130 cases today. At 10% growth, that's 338 cases in 10 days. At 20%, it's 805. At 50%, it's 7,497.

So, you should track your local growth rate to understand the gravity of your situation.

Responses:

Looking at past data, it looks like it's close to 20%. - the wrong element, bad guy Mar 28, 22:26 2
- I'd suggest more tests. Isn't that about the time they really got serious about testing - or as serious as they are so far. -- nm - Meg Mar 28, 22:33 1
  - Yes, the area probably received more tests and then got a bunch of results back on the same day. -- nm - David Mar 29, 05:13

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JF, the number of cases today doesn't allow for modeling. -- (edited)

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