ST Alpha - "Reasonable, well-meaning experts disagree (you've followed the 538 expert predictions of numbers right? they vary stunningly). He will have to use his" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "He did not give specific dates, said we would rely on experts. Reinforced that it's 12-18 months before we have a vaccine -- nm" by ty97

Reasonable, well-meaning experts disagree (you've followed the 538 expert predictions of numbers right? they vary stunningly). He will have to use his

Posted by JackDawson (aka dawson) Apr 13 '20, 13:46

judgment.

It will not be enough or sufficient to just pass it on to experts, who are, after all, flying in the dark with a lot of this and cannot be expected to know all the answers or provide exact and accurate predictions.

He will have to make a politician's decision about how much (health, economic) risk he is willing to tolerate, and face the voters if he is wrong.

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The reality is that it can't be done without more widely available testing and effective tracking and tracing. These are complicated issues (though - pmb Apr 13, 13:51 1
- Yup. We mirrored each others' posts here and above. -- nm - JackDawson Apr 13, 13:51

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Reasonable, well-meaning experts disagree (you've followed the 538 expert predictions of numbers right? they vary stunningly). He will have to use his

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