ST Alpha - "This model is shit. 74k dead in the US by August. We will be there by Friday. -- (edited)" (Reading a Post)

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This model is shit. 74k dead in the US by August. We will be there by Friday. -- (edited)

Posted by Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz) May 3 '20, 05:29

I predict c-19 will kill more than 10 Americans. I’m a great modeler.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/04/28/death-toll-coronavirus-estimate-214339 (www.google.com)

Responses:

It also hasn’t been updated since April 27th so... -- nm - Qale May 3, 06:42 2
- They update weekly -- and that was 6 days ago --- but even then, there was no evidence that 74k was realistic. - Will Hunting May 3, 06:54 1
  - I said “also!” -- nm - Qale May 3, 06:55
Like a *rosy* prediction is that the daily totals average 1k for May. That puts you just shy of 100k at that point. -- nm - Reagen May 3, 05:55 5
- Or, put another way, 74000 by the end of August means the average deaths/day drops *today* to 54 per. -- nm - Reagen May 3, 06:06 4
  - It pretty obvious this "model" is just administration damage control. -- nm - Inigo May 3, 06:08 2
    - I get (sorta) why Trump and them would sell it, but why would U-Dub's group have such a shitty model? That's so bad, you should just fire the - Will Hunting May 3, 06:29 1
      - Trump's team seems incapable of thinking more than a week out at a time. - Reagen May 3, 06:31
  - "end of May" is a only slightly less ludicrous 226 per. -- nm - Reagen May 3, 06:06

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