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In response to
"Survivor (spoils)"
by
Uhtred Ragnarson
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spoiler
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How did a past winner that close to the end play as poorly as Nick did? What was his plan? Who did he think he was going to the end with? Michelle was spot on in her assessment of things after the first vote. Nick should have seen that earlier and Sara should actually listen to her.
So after Nicks first mistake in taking out Jeremy instead of Ben he did even worse by buying an advantage that let Michelle win immunity, which sealed his fate. You don't need to buy every advantage offered. He should have just let it pass.
If he had made the move on Ben, then taken out Tony and Sara (or maybe Denise) he would have had a chance. If he went to the end with Michelle and Jeremy then voting out Ben in episode 1 could have lead to his win. After that he had no chance.
I don't think Ben can win. He can't beat Tony. He can't beat Denise. He likely can't beat Sara since he seems to be third in the Tony-Sara-Ben alliance. I don't think he can beat whoever returns. I don't think he can beat Michelle if she makes it to the end. Of course, Michelle's only chance would be to go against Sara and Ben while making at least one good move along the way. Tony likely wins if he makes it to the end. I can only see him losing to the returnee, unless he botches final tribal on an Amanda Kimmel level. I don't know who wins between Sara and Denise. Sara is a close #2 to Tony, but doesn't have any move she can claim as her own. She needs to blindside Tony to win.
The only really good move I remember is Denise taking out Sandra. Tony's mistake might have been not taking out Denise last night. I think it was too early, though. If nobody was coming back it might have been the right time. The best chance for something interesting is if Michelle and the returnee both end up with immunity. Otherwise it is one of them, followed by the other. Then it comes down to who Ben wants to lose to, Tony or Denise/Sara.
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