ST Alpha - "I think it's abundantly clear that the mortality rate isn't just (identified deaths)/(identified cases)" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "I now know three people personal friends positive for the anti bodies. (All nyc) I can’t help but wonder if the infection rate is astronomically highe" by JackDawson

I think it's abundantly clear that the mortality rate isn't just (identified deaths)/(identified cases)

Posted by Reagen May 10 '20, 10:24

both the numerator and denominator are wrong. But I don't think there's anyone left that still thinks that's the real calculation, which is why there's a lot more emphasis on per capita cases. It doesn't tell you much about the actual mortality rate (which, honestly, is trivia - it's killing 10s of thousands, will kill 100s of thousands by the end) but does tell you about the efforts to prevent it.

Responses:

Yes I get all that. Knowing the true mortality rate and rate of infection are also important - in fact critical - in understanding a disease - JackDawson May 10, 10:32 4
- I'm not saying the numbers of death are, I'm saying that % is to an extent. - Reagen May 10, 10:54 3
  - That’s fine from the perspective of assessing the past responses which are terrible and will be hard to convince me otherwise — But I also want to mov - JackDawson May 10, 11:11
  - all numbers are significantly off, even deaths, NY death certificates are 5 or 6x last year, people passing out and hitting head/not listed as c19 -- nm - zeitgeist May 10, 11:00 1
    - There was significant amounts added to the counts a couple of weeks ago based on "presumed cases" - Reagen May 10, 11:18
I was told there would be no math. -- nm - Qale May 10, 10:31

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I think it's abundantly clear that the mortality rate isn't just (identified deaths)/(identified cases)

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