ST Alpha - "From B2, I think the calculus is simpler on testing. A coordinated testing regime requires (a) competent people to put it together, (b)" (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 151

From B2, I think the calculus is simpler on testing. A coordinated testing regime requires (a) competent people to put it together, (b)

Posted by pmb (aka pmb) May 10 '20, 13:18

represents an acknowledgment that previous testing was inadequate, and (c) takes responsibility for getting it done (which means risk of failure falls on their shoulders). The few competent people who remain that could help organize it are not in his inner circle, he can't acknowledge anything other that "perfect response" and he needs somebody else to blame. Therefore, he punts to states and doesn't give them resources, focuses only on one side of the issue (opening the economy) without understanding the intersection of the issues and touts miracle endings that will never happen.

Responses:

I don’t know why we even got into trump. I simply said I was shocked to know three people positive for antibodies and assumed the infection rate is ev - JackDawson May 10, 13:24 22
- In large part because it does come back to him - Reagen May 10, 13:35 2
  - The number of real cases vs tested is assumed to be 10-30x times in most parts of the world — I’m not at all defending trump but it does not in fact -- (edited) - JackDawson May 10, 14:07
  - The reality is that it's never a question of strategy with Trump. It's personality (and more specifically personality disorders). There is nothing - pmb May 10, 13:42
- I was just commenting on those arguments. My assumption is that the number of actual infected vs. positive tests is at least 10x too low. -- nm - pmb May 10, 13:26 18
  - people model this based on death rate and percentage of positive tests. last one I saw had the US detecting 15-25%. UK was the worst at 2.5-7.5% -- nm - mafic May 10, 17:34
  - But I'll add that one of the real problems with this disease is its stealthiness. There are asymptomatic infected, a false negative rate on testing - pmb May 10, 13:28 15
    - that 30% false negative rate is mostly BS. it's based on one study with <300 participants from the early days in China. - mafic May 10, 17:26 1
      - It’s one thing for the crazies to deny science - they’ve been doing that for millennia - it’s quite another for normal people to fall into those habit - JackDawson May 10, 17:39
    - What’s the source for the high false positives antibody? I thought the scientific community agreed that the roche and Abbott tests are over 99pct effe - JackDawson May 10, 14:06 12
      - the Roche and Abbott tests detect the virus, not the antibodies. antibody tests are harder to develop, and haven't been entirely nailed down yet. -- nm - mafic May 10, 17:47
      - Here is one article. It's possible that it's improved since then, but I have heard many stories about this. It's also very possible/likely that those aren't the only tests being used. -- (link*) - pmb May 10, 14:11 10
        
        Here's another. -- (link) - pmb May 10, 14:15 9
        
        Yeah...that article says that there are three antibody tests— as of three weeks ago — that did not delivery false positives over 99pct of the time. - JackDawson May 10, 14:26 8
        
        Yes, but there are 14 tests on the market. Those 3 aren't the only ones being used. Also, even those 3 gave false negatives at least 10% of the time - pmb May 10, 14:53 7
        
        These are anti body tests. Undercounting just means people will not know they’re immune which is a problem that leads to more safety not less - JackDawson May 10, 14:57 6
        
        You're ignoring the other 11 tests that exist. It's great that there are accurate ones. Those are not the only ones being used at this point. - pmb May 10, 15:01 5
        
        I’m not ignoring them and I’m not saying the effective ones are available widely. All I’m saying is that the tests that do work suggest that the - JackDawson May 10, 17:36 2
        
        Who was disputing that? -- nm - pmb May 10, 18:07
        
        sort of kind of? you can model all of this. large-scale studies in places where they're estimated to be getting almost all symptomatic cases - mafic May 10, 18:07
        
        On the flip side, the first thing that I've found hopeful in a while was a Dr. on George Stephonopolous' show today who expects to begin clinical - pmb May 10, 15:13 1
        
        nice -- nm - mud May 10, 15:19
  - At least. Yep. -- nm - Dark Callisto May 10, 13:27

Post a message top

From B2, I think the calculus is simpler on testing. A coordinated testing regime requires (a) competent people to put it together, (b)

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.