ST Alpha - "I was just commenting on those arguments. My assumption is that the number of actual infected vs. positive tests is at least 10x too low. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "I don’t know why we even got into trump. I simply said I was shocked to know three people positive for antibodies and assumed the infection rate is ev" by JackDawson

I was just commenting on those arguments. My assumption is that the number of actual infected vs. positive tests is at least 10x too low. -- nm

Posted by pmb (aka pmb) May 10 '20, 13:26

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Responses:

people model this based on death rate and percentage of positive tests. last one I saw had the US detecting 15-25%. UK was the worst at 2.5-7.5% -- nm - mafic May 10, 17:34
But I'll add that one of the real problems with this disease is its stealthiness. There are asymptomatic infected, a false negative rate on testing - pmb May 10, 13:28 15
- that 30% false negative rate is mostly BS. it's based on one study with <300 participants from the early days in China. - mafic May 10, 17:26 1
  - It’s one thing for the crazies to deny science - they’ve been doing that for millennia - it’s quite another for normal people to fall into those habit - JackDawson May 10, 17:39
- What’s the source for the high false positives antibody? I thought the scientific community agreed that the roche and Abbott tests are over 99pct effe - JackDawson May 10, 14:06 12
  - the Roche and Abbott tests detect the virus, not the antibodies. antibody tests are harder to develop, and haven't been entirely nailed down yet. -- nm - mafic May 10, 17:47
  - Here is one article. It's possible that it's improved since then, but I have heard many stories about this. It's also very possible/likely that those aren't the only tests being used. -- (link*) - pmb May 10, 14:11 10
    - Here's another. -- (link) - pmb May 10, 14:15 9
      - Yeah...that article says that there are three antibody tests— as of three weeks ago — that did not delivery false positives over 99pct of the time. - JackDawson May 10, 14:26 8
        
        Yes, but there are 14 tests on the market. Those 3 aren't the only ones being used. Also, even those 3 gave false negatives at least 10% of the time - pmb May 10, 14:53 7
        
        These are anti body tests. Undercounting just means people will not know they’re immune which is a problem that leads to more safety not less - JackDawson May 10, 14:57 6
        
        You're ignoring the other 11 tests that exist. It's great that there are accurate ones. Those are not the only ones being used at this point. - pmb May 10, 15:01 5
        
        I’m not ignoring them and I’m not saying the effective ones are available widely. All I’m saying is that the tests that do work suggest that the - JackDawson May 10, 17:36 2
        
        Who was disputing that? -- nm - pmb May 10, 18:07
        
        sort of kind of? you can model all of this. large-scale studies in places where they're estimated to be getting almost all symptomatic cases - mafic May 10, 18:07
        
        On the flip side, the first thing that I've found hopeful in a while was a Dr. on George Stephonopolous' show today who expects to begin clinical - pmb May 10, 15:13 1
        
        nice -- nm - mud May 10, 15:19
At least. Yep. -- nm - Dark Callisto May 10, 13:27

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