The NFL’s Bird Gantlet is a thing the Cowboys will face this year. Can they emerge unscathed?
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This year, the Dallas Cowboys will have a chance to do something that no NFL team has ever accomplished: run the Bird Gantlet by beating all five franchises that feature bird mascots in the same season.
No, seriously, this is a thing. A subreddit dedicated to the teams with bird mascots was created in 2012 and now has 7,500 members. Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian even mentioned the community as one of his favorites during an interview with Jimmy Kimmel in 2017.
Two teams have come close to completing the more-famous-than-you-would-expect Bird Gantlet. The first came in 2003, when the St. Louis Rams defeated the Arizona Cardinals (twice), Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks but lost in the playoffs before they had a chance to face the Eagles. In 2008, the New York Giants beat the Cardinals, Eagles, Ravens and Seahawks but didn’t face the Falcons in the regular season or the playoffs, despite both qualifying for the postseason that year.
[Texans, Redskins and Broncos have the toughest schedules to start the season]
Dallas faces each of the bird teams during the 2020 regular season, starting with the Falcons in Week 2. So can the Cowboys ultimately best all of the birds?
Atlanta boasts one of the most prolific passer-receiver combos in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but the Falcons are seven-point underdogs against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Good start.
In Week 3, the Cowboys face quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson was the fifth-most-valuable passer of 2019, per ESPN, and will no doubt breathe a sigh of relief knowing cornerback Byron Jones, the eighth-best cornerback last year according to Pro Football Focus, left Dallas for Miami in free agency.
The Cowboys host the retooled Arizona Cardinals in Week 6. Arizona traded injury-prone running back David Johnson for star wideout DeAndre Hopkins, and it signed Jordan Phillips to shore up the interior of its defensive line. The Cardinals also added Devon Kennard, who can play on the edge or as a linebacker.
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Two weeks later, the Cowboys face the Eagles, the reigning NFC East champions, in Philadelphia. The Eagles made some questionable moves in the draft, including using a second-round pick on quarterback Jalen Hurts despite having Carson Wentz on the roster, and still have a gaping hole at linebacker.
In Week 13, Dallas will visit the Ravens. The reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, is the second choice to win it again in 2020 behind Patrick Mahomes, per the odds offered by Caesars Entertainment. This will be a tough one for Dallas, which is listed as a seven-point underdog. Baltimore scored 11 more points per game than expected on offense last year (a league high) after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play per data from TruMedia. The Ravens also saved almost five points per game on defense (fifth-best).
Dallas hosts Philadelphia in its penultimate game of the season. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Eagles are 10-8 in Dallas.
Based on preseason point spreads, the Cowboys are favored to win three of the matchups, with two others close to a coin flip, limiting their chances at a successful run of the Bird Gantlet. If we simulate these six games 1,000 times, Dallas comes away with a victory against each team just 6 percent of the time, implying odds of 16-1 against. The Cowboys beat four of the five bird opponents 24 percent of the time. It seems the path through the gantlet will again prove challenging.
WEEK OPPONENT POINT SPREAD IMPLIED WIN PROBABILITY FOR DALLAS
2 vs. Falcons -7 75 percent
3 at Seahawks +2½ 46 percent
6 vs. Cardinals -6½ 72 percent
8 at Eagles +2½ 46 percent
13 at Ravens +7 25 percent
16 vs. Eagles -2 54 percent
Two other NFC East teams, the Giants and Washington Redskins, have a chance to run the Bird Gantlet, but they only face four of the teams (the Cardinals, Eagles, Ravens and Seahawks) during the regular season, leaving a playoff game against the Falcons as the only means to completing the run. Using the same method as we did for the Cowboys, we can expect the Giants to finish 2020 with four regular season wins against the bird teams 7 percent of the time; the Redskins do it 5 percent of the time. Each would then have to draw the Falcons in the postseason to have a chance at completing the Bird Gantlet. In other words, don’t count on it happening this year.
Dallas, you’re our only hope.
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