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Posts: 154
In response to
"
Here you go, Dawson: The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released by Oxford Economics predicts -- (link*)
"
by
decline
that the model thought he'd get 55% to start should tell you everything you know about its value. -- nm
Posted by
Reagen
May 21 '20, 12:35
(No message)
Responses:
In the bizzarro Ricky Bobby world of Trump: if he aint losing, he's winning. And I still think he wins if he holds national polls >40%.
-
Max
May 21, 12:39
4
Also, my point is about the modelling more than anything. Can he win? Frighteningly, yes. But if your model says 55% PV, it's based on garbage. -- nm
-
Reagen
May 21, 12:43
2
Obama 2 was 51%. With a good economy and Biden perhaps not as sharp as Romney, I don't see a shift to 55% as garbage.
-
Max
May 21, 12:51
1
It's only a possibility if you don't consider polling *at all*.
-
Reagen
May 21, 12:55
He's running a point ahead of 2016. *but*. Biden is running 3 points ahead of Clinton.
-
Reagen
May 21, 12:42
yeah that's bogus -- nm
-
mud
May 21, 12:36
1
It's like predicting the Lakers will beat the Bucks 173-57. -- nm
-
Reagen
May 21, 12:39
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