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In response to
"Also, my point is about the modelling more than anything. Can he win? Frighteningly, yes. But if your model says 55% PV, it's based on garbage. -- nm"
by
Reagen
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Obama 2 was 51%. With a good economy and Biden perhaps not as sharp as Romney, I don't see a shift to 55% as garbage.
Posted by
Max
May 21 '20, 12:51
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Unprecedented in modern times, maybe as much as their new historic loss prediction. But if Reagan could do nearly 59, I don't see 55 as completely out of whack.
I haven't looked at their modeling of course, but I'm guessing that they're predicting past contemporary polls to what could happen on election day.
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Responses:
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