ST Alpha - "if you look at initial claims as well as continuing, it's roughly flat. 18+4.4 in April. 20.8+2.2 in May." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "So, in that regard, the numbers went from 18 million continued jobless claims to almost 23 million. Yet, the rate went down. -- nm*" by Inigo

if you look at initial claims as well as continuing, it's roughly flat. 18+4.4 in April. 20.8+2.2 in May.

Posted by znufrii, silly old man (aka znufrii) Jun 5 '20, 06:35

And iirc, April number were still being held down by processing delays and people not being able to submit claims.

It's not going to be a perfect correlation because of different methodologies, but as a rough guide, it seems to track.

Responses:

So, if the math is this ‘simple’, why the hell did the experts miss the rate by 6-7%? -- nm - Will Hunting Jun 5, 06:38 9
- I'd argue in their defence that the last three reports are extraordinary times when traditional models fail. -- nm - Name Withheld By Request Jun 5, 06:53
- There's probably other things they look at too. *shrug* -- nm - znufrii, silly old man Jun 5, 06:42 3
  - The Labor Department is saying the number is actually 3% higher if some job situations were reported accurately *shrug* -- nm - JackDawson Jun 5, 06:45 1
    - Right. -- (edited) - znufrii, silly old man Jun 5, 06:47
  - It's also still being underreported due to misclassification of respondents who are on furlough and not being paid but still have their jobs. - znufrii, silly old man Jun 5, 06:45
- They ran out of other hands. -- nm - Ba'rona Beast Jun 5, 06:41
- Predicting doomsday gets you a quote in the Times and predicting boring does not ? -- nm - JackDawson Jun 5, 06:40 2
  - like anyone reads that woeful failing rag anymore. -- nm - znufrii, silly old man Jun 5, 06:52 1
    - Only if you need to be told how to think -- nm - JackDawson Jun 5, 06:57

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if you look at initial claims as well as continuing, it's roughly flat. 18+4.4 in April. 20.8+2.2 in May.

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