ST Alpha - "IMO, until this graph gets worse, focusing on the change in net positive COVID cases isn't the argument in Florida (and possibly other states)." (Reading a Post)

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IMO, until this graph gets worse, focusing on the change in net positive COVID cases isn't the argument in Florida (and possibly other states).

Posted by JaxSean (aka JaxSean) Jun 12 '20, 12:18

More people getting tested, with more tests available, are likely going to make that number go up.

This is new hospitalizations and deaths by day. Until the hospitalizations get much worse, then the "line is flattened" to most people, and hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Yes, spikes in "new cases" will possibly/probably lead to new hospitalizations (& deaths), but I think these are the indexes we need to be watching, personally.

(I continue to stay away from any social interactions that I can, and use masks, and will continue to argue that.)

Am I wrong?

Responses:

"Most people" are in major denial. Much of Florida is official classified as "rebound" right now. I'm trying to find numbers for testing, do you happen to have that? -- nm* - loosilu Jun 12, 12:57 4
- I'm not seeing testing numbers go up in the US overall, but it's not broken down by state. -- nm - loosilu Jun 12, 13:00 3
  - If you go here, you can download the .CSV file for a single state - JaxSean Jun 12, 13:23 2
    - Oh thanks. Very helpful. -- nm - loosilu Jun 12, 13:30
    - They also have an all encompassing state daily historical as well. It's where you can get the daily changes that might not be on the state websites. -- nm - JaxSean Jun 12, 13:24
Florida has been using the 'increased testing' reasoning for how long now? Is it actually true anymore? -- nm - ty97 Jun 12, 12:42 7
- ty97 and Jax, have you seen today's analysis in the MH? -- (link) - loosilu Jun 12, 13:04 3
  - I like the interactivity of that article. Very informative -- nm - JaxSean Jun 12, 13:17 2
    - Another article in the series. Florida WAS covering up the numbers. -- (link) - loosilu Jun 12, 13:29
    - Looks like they got their hands on a private version of the data the state is hiding. That's good journalism. -- nm* - loosilu Jun 12, 13:20
- The Miami Herald says probably not. - loosilu Jun 12, 13:03
- Right, what is the hospitalization ratio trend? - znufrii, silly old man Jun 12, 12:44 1
  - Very rare. -- nm - WHO Jun 12, 13:00
The case number in Harris Co is alarming. But our death count in the area is quite low. This is likely due to medical being the #2 industry here. -- nm - Qale Jun 12, 12:35 2
- Hopefully this is the case and the death rate remains low, but increases in death count tend to lag increases in case count -- nm - ty97 Jun 12, 12:44
- Yeah I’m worried about my family there -- nm - JackDawson Jun 12, 12:36
What I’m missing from the things I read including the good interview loosi posted is that it says that 60-80pct of Americans are gonna get infected - - JackDawson Jun 12, 12:28 9
- I don't have an article at hand, but the analysis I saw is that overall deaths are lower with social distancing. -- nm - loosilu Jun 12, 13:07
- Well, I hope that number isn't hit. There aren't enough lungs available for transplants, and swathes of the populace will suffer effects for years. - Beryllium Jun 12, 12:34 6
  - But hoping isn’t enough/- every single doctor seems to say that’s what’s gonna happen... -- nm - JackDawson Jun 12, 12:36 5
    - Hospitals exceeeding capacity leads to more overall deaths when people have to go untreated. -- nm - loosilu Jun 12, 13:08 4
      - Yeah I mean this makes total sense so like fucking increase hospital capacity assholes you’ve had three months and counting -- nm - JackDawson Jun 12, 13:12 3
        
        Iirc they have doubled hospital icu capacity, converting watds etc, but there is a limited amount of drugs and staff -- nm - zeitgeist Jun 12, 14:04 1
        
        Varies widely by location. -- nm - loosilu Jun 12, 14:07
        
        Easier said than done when it's scattered across the country as opposed to centralized in NYC. Many of these hospitals have lost shitloads -- (edited) - loosilu Jun 12, 13:46
- Essentially, yes, I think that's kinda my point. "infections" up or down shouldn't be the key indicators. Hospitalization and death should be. - JaxSean Jun 12, 12:31
Obviously I can't speak for the rest of the state, but here's a graph for our affiliated hospital. - Bjarön Jun 12, 12:24 [Attachment] 2
- I'm just arguing that case does not necessarily correlate to hospital/death. -- nm - JaxSean Jun 12, 12:29 1
  - I'm in agreeance with you. It's the # of hospitalized cases I find more interesting and useful. - Bjarön Jun 12, 12:51
There are a lot of numbers to watch. However, an alarming one is rising. - David Jun 12, 12:19 5
- Sure, but if those increases in positive cases don't result in hospitalization or death, then that increase is really moot. - JaxSean Jun 12, 12:25 4
  - The thing that's difficult to understand on this is the pacing. Hospitalizations don't happen immediately. - David Jun 12, 12:39 3
    - (And I'm not saying this to scare you. I want you to know so that you take additional measures.) - David Jun 12, 12:39 2
      - We're still 99% adhering to quarantine. - JaxSean Jun 12, 12:41 1
        
        As you should. That Sea World report yesterday was terrifying. -- nm - David Jun 12, 12:43
Bugger. Graph here -- (pic) - JaxSean Jun 12, 12:19 [Attachment]

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IMO, until this graph gets worse, focusing on the change in net positive COVID cases isn't the argument in Florida (and possibly other states).

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