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Sorry to impose, guys, but can someone walk me through the Math of why I should be 80% optimistic right now?

Posted by Marlowe Nov 4 '20, 07:44

Ignore my skepticism with the institutions right now, but how do the numbers support those odds?

Responses:

“Of the votes that remain to be counted, a majority of them come from places that leaned Democratic in 2016.” - znufrii Nov 4, 07:54
Assuming that NV stays blue, WI and MI both had large primarily democratic leaning precincts yet to report with large quantities of mail in ballots. - oblique Nov 4, 07:50
This is a pretty decent explanation of why there is confidence in Biden (nmbl) - Brian Nov 4, 07:49 8
- "And yet, people lost their minds anyway." -- I feel that writer's frustration. -- nm - David Nov 4, 08:13 1
  - Look at that writer, assuming we had the luxury of minds to start with. -- nm - Qale Nov 4, 08:16
- This was a great read, thanks.. (NM) - Marlowe Nov 4, 07:58
- Also, how is the Senate looking? (NM) - Marlowe Nov 4, 07:52 4
  - This is constantly updated and easy to get to. -- (link) - mara Nov 4, 07:55
  - Disappointing. -- nm - loosilu Nov 4, 07:55
  - Lol. - znufrii Nov 4, 07:54
  - Meh. 51-49 at the absolute best. -- nm* - Reagen Nov 4, 07:53
270 EV needed to win. Biden at 227 at NYT. AZ & MI all appear to me to be confidently Biden 27 EV. NV & WI less confidently Biden 16 EV -- nm - crash davis Nov 4, 07:49
Biden needs 46 Electoral Votes based on what CNN has called. He currently has leads on 47 Electoral Votes and remaining vote count should favor him. -- nm* - Dano Nov 4, 07:48 13
- OK, thanks all. Any way to get a bit more of a leeway, since faithless electors, for instance? (NM) - Marlowe Nov 4, 07:51 12
  - States can legally tell faithless electors to get fucked now, thanks to a SCOTUS case. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 07:56 7
    - Of all the features (some would say bugs, but whatever) of the US electoral system, this* is what mostly boggles my mind. - Marlowe Nov 4, 08:01 6
      - It was so if the people made a terrible decision the electors could “correct” it. - spamlet Nov 4, 08:13 3
        
        Too sad that nobody could correct *that* terrible decision. Either you are a effing democracy or you aren't. (NM) -- nm - Marlowe Nov 4, 08:26 2
        
        We're not -- nm - oblique Nov 4, 08:28 1
        
        Correct, we're a Republic of states. Until 1912 the Senate wasn't even directly elected. -- nm - spamlet Nov 4, 08:45
      - It's what you'd get if you let loose a bunch of 18th century intellectuals/drinking society to design a decision system. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 08:06 1
        
        hilarious -- nm - mud Nov 4, 08:07
  - There are other states where he is currently trailing but could win based on the remaining vote counts. (Pennsylvania is the big one). -- nm - Dano Nov 4, 07:55 3
    - PA numbers: 1M+ votes still to be counted. Trump leads by 500K votes. Mail-in trend is 70% Biden so far. PA is very much a possibility -- nm - decline Nov 4, 08:05 2
      - WI+MI. Screw PA :) -- nm - oblique Nov 4, 08:05 1
        
        I hope that's the case -- nm - decline Nov 4, 08:07
What Bery said. The absentee and mail in ballots trend toward Biden. -- nm - loosilu Nov 4, 07:46
As noted below, USPS also havent delivered all the ballots. PA and others accept late receipt of ballots. -- nm - budice Nov 4, 07:46
A large amount of yet-uncounted votes lean democratic. -- nm - Beryllium Nov 4, 07:45

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Sorry to impose, guys, but can someone walk me through the Math of why I should be 80% optimistic right now?

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