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In response to
"You want it? -- nm"
by
Volnelk
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Here you go
Posted by
Volnelk
Nov 13 '20, 07:55
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Quarterbacks I love in Week 10
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, vs. Jaguars
Sure, you might want to make fun of a matchup between Rodgers and Jake Luton, but back in the spring, when every other sport was being postponed, you'd have cut off two fingers to see Rodgers vs. Luton. So sure, it's not the best matchup, but you know what is a great matchup? Pretty much any quarterback vs. the Jaguars' defense. Jacksonville allows the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and gives up touchdown passes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Three of the past four quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have scored 24 or more fantasy points. Add to it Rodgers' recent production -- at least three touchdown passes in five of his past six games, including four last week even with Aaron Jones back in the lineup -- and he's a top-four must-start in Week 10. Yes, even if you also have Jake Luton on your roster. Even if you are related to Jake Luton. Even if you actually are Jake Luton. All of you are starting Rodgers and not thinking twice about it.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams, vs. Seahawks
Seattle allows 26.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and 362.1 passing yards per game -- both league highs. If you're a quarterback playing the Seahawks, you go off. So you'd have to expect the same from a quarterback whose last name is basically "Go Off," right? I mean, that's basic analysis. It's science, really. But fine, I'll give you a little more: Goff is averaging 331.8 passing yards in his past four meetings with the Seahawks, and none of those games was against this 2020 version of the Seattle "defense." Goff should ... (coughs) (loud mic feedback) ... GO OFF your bench this week and into your starting lineup.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles, at Giants
As the Eagles have gotten healthier, so has Wentz's deep-ball game. Averaging 10.1 air yards per attempt over his four games, which works well considering New York allows opponents to complete deep passes at the sixth-highest rate. Over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing 19.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. That includes Wentz's Week 7 performance against the G-Men (the "G" stands for Great-matchup-for-opposing-quarterbacks, of course), when he posted 359 passing yards, two touchdowns and 27.8 fantasy points. And that stat line was without Jalen Reagor or Dallas Goedert in the lineup, players who will suit up for the Eagles on Sunday. Look for Wentz to return to top-10 fantasy quarterback production coming off the bye this week.
Others receiving votes
You'll have to monitor Ben Roethlisberger's status -- both his banged-up knees and COVID-19-list inclusion --- into the weekend, but I love him against the Bengals if he plays. Over the past four weeks, the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Roethlisberger has multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. ... The Chargers allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and have coughed up multiple passing scores in each of their past three, putting Tua Tagovailoa on the two-QB or deep-league streaming radar. His floor is raised by the fact that he had 35 rushing yards on seven carries last week. The hip looks good. ... If you're a Drew Lock manager with heart issues, I don't advise checking his production until after his game concludes. Lock always seems to start slow, but the fantasy points inevitably arrive by game's end. In fact, believe it or not, Lock is averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game and 43 pass attempts in his past three games. Facing a Raiders team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and seventh-most passing yards? Lock is a solid play again this week, as long as you're the patient type. ... Rested from the bye and off the COVID-19 list, Baker Mayfield gets a Texans D that has allowed an average of 308 yards and three touchdown passes per game over the past four weeks. You could do a lot worse than Mayfield for a Week 10 streamer. I have him as a top-15 play this week.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 10
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, at Steelers
Two weeks to prepare and likely to have to throw a ton, so what's the issue? Well, the Bengals allow 3.5 sacks per game, second worst in the league. And that's without playing either of their two games this year against the Steelers, who lead the league in pressure rate and are second in blitz rate. I love Burrow most weeks, but I definitely do not love the prospects of him putting up big fantasy numbers in a game in which he'll have T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and friends in his face on every play. The Steelers allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing QBs, and I have Burrow just outside my top 12 for the week.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, vs. Football Team
I don't get to brag about my Football Team all that often, so please indulge me here:
Washington allows a league-low 185.6 passing yards per game this season.
Teams facing Washington average just 28.9 pass attempts per game, second fewest in the NFL.
Washington has allowed just 11 passing touchdowns this season.
Now, some of that is because teams have run so effectively on Washington and don't need to throw a ton, but whatever. Result is the same. Now time for something I do get to do very often, because it provides me great joy, and that's deliver bad news to Daniel Dopp: Stafford, who has just two finishes this season better than QB15 and who is likely to once again be without Kenny Golladay, is firmly on the Hate list in Week 10.
Running backs I love in Week 10
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns, vs. Texans
You know the saying "Everything's bigger in Texas"? That phrase was first used in reference to the massive amount of rushing yards the Texans' defense allows. True story. Houston allows a league-high 144.9 rushing yards per game and 5.44 yards per carry to running backs. The Texans have also given up the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position on the season. That means Hunt is in line for a huge game this week. "But Berry, you fool! Nick Chubb might return to action this week." You're right. I am a fool. And also about the Chubb thing. But that's how confident I am in Hunt against the Texans. In the first three weeks, with Chubb and Hunt active, both RBs were top 15 in fantasy points per game. Oh, and the Texans also give up the fourth-most yards per RB reception allowed. Even with a slightly reduced workload, Hunt will put up big numbers.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team, at Lions
I would like to thank Daniel Dopp for his service to our country, as Daniel spent six years in the Air Force and I wrote about him a few years back. I would also like to thank Daniel for his Lions service ... to opposing running backs! Detroit allows the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. The Lions also have allowed a league-high five receiving touchdowns to the position. Meanwhile, Gibson has a rushing touchdown in five of his past seven games, and along with J.D. McKissic (more on him in a bit) have given Washington legitimate production this year that will continue with Alex Smith under center. You see, Daniel, talented rookie running backs can be given a heavy workload on a rebuilding team. Just don't tell Matt Patricia.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Panthers
Am I aware it's a risk to put Fournette on the Love list? Yes. But I am also aware -- and you should be, too -- that Fournette has more touches than Ronald Jones in each of the Bucs' past three games, including 17-plus touches in two of those games. A workload anywhere near that on Sunday puts Fournette, who quietly has six targets in three straight games, in line for a nice game against a Panthers defense that is bottom five in rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs this season.
Others receiving votes
J.D. McKissic is my 2020 nominee for the prestigious Guy Who Is Only Fantasy-Relevant in PPR Leagues Award. He has at least six receptions in four of his past five games, while the Lions (who used to have him! Haha!) give up a league-high 11.2 yards per running back reception. ... Arizona, you're about to get Moss-ed! And by that I mean: give up about 14.4 fantasy points to Zack Moss. That's what Moss has averaged over the past three weeks, as he has continued to push past Devin Singletary in that Buffalo backfield -- especially in red zone and goal-to-go usage. ... Phillip Lindsay is the better back in Denver right now, both via the eye test and the pretty-much-every-stat test. He's a viable flex play this week against the Raiders, who allow 30.1 fantasy points per game to running backs. ... If David Johnson is out Sunday, get you some Duke Johnson Jr. He had 20 touches and 16 carries after David Johnson left last week's game, and Cleveland gives up the sixth-most yards per reception to running backs.
Running backs I hate in Week 10
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears, vs. Vikings
Montgomery has fewer than 70 scrimmage yards in five of his past seven games and no touchdowns since Week 5. In the Vikings' past five games, they've allowed only one running back rushing touchdown, and they have yet to give up a running back receiving score on the season. I feel like I'm online bullying David Montgomery at this point, but ... yeah, he's on the Hate list yet again. And if he were to miss this game (he left last week's game with a concussion), I'm using his likely replacements (Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall) in only deep leagues. See you next week!
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills, at Cardinals
Taylor and Singletary seem to be engaged in a battle to see who can work their way out of an NFL offense quicker. Singletary had a season-low five touches last week and has only one game since Week 4 in which he has notched double-digit fantasy points. Zero touchdowns in his past five games and less than 20 receiving yards in four of the past five is an easy way to find yourself on the Hate list, and he's droppable in standard 10- or 12-team leagues.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 10
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams, vs. Seahawks
Look, I love my little Cooper Kupp. I always will. But there's no bias involved with putting him on the Love list against a Seattle defense that allows not only the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season but the most catches and yards per game to the slot. My little Cooper Kupp has at least six targets in seven straight games. Why do I bring that up? Because WRs who have seen six-plus targets against Seattle this year are averaging 20.6 fantasy points per game. Put Kupp in your lineup this week, obviously, but just when you do, say to yourself, "I'm starting Matthew's little Cooper Kupp."
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, at Steelers
Let's stay in the slot with some Love for Tyler Boyd, who, since Week 2, is the eighth-best WR in fantasy points per game. Off the bye and likely needing to throw to keep up with the Steelers, Boyd should continue to find a lot of success this week. Pittsburgh is bottom seven on the season in both yards per game to the slot and touchdowns to the slot. That means Boyd deserves to be in your WR1 slot.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans, at Browns
Cooks has been a top-20 wide receiver in three of his past four games, including a pair of top-six finishes. And don't tell Bill O'Brien, but Cooks is actually averaging more fantasy points per game over his past five games than DeAndre Hopkins is over his past five. With at least nine targets in four in a row (and a TD in three of them), Deshaun Watson keeps looking for Cooks early and often. All those trends should continue this week against a Browns team that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions, vs. Football Team
Quick: Name the top three tight ends in fantasy this year. Travis Kelce is obvious. But after him? Darren Waller and ... Thomas James Hockenson. And he's actually TE2 over the past three weeks behind only Kelce. With five-plus catches in three in a row and a touchdown in four of his past five games (with multiple red zone targets in all four of those games), Hockenson is lined up for another big week. The Football Team has allowed opponents to complete 54.5% of end zone targets this season -- the third-highest rate in the league -- while giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Others receiving votes
You heard it here first -- well, maybe -- I don't know what you're listening to all day -- but Jerry Jeudy is going to be a major fantasy factor down the stretch. Twenty-four targets over the past two weeks and he's leading the NFL in total air yards over that span. I called for a breakout game for him last week on Fantasy Football Now and not only did he deliver, but it should work out again this week, assuming he plays. Just as this was being published, news came out that Jeudy suffered a shoulder contusion and his status for this week is in doubt. ... Part of the reason that DeAndre Hopkins' production has dipped recently? The rise of Christian Kirk. Ten-plus fantasy points in five straight games. I say it will be six this week against a Buffalo defense that allows the highest catch rate on deep passes. ... Cincinnati is bottom three in the NFL in both tight end touchdowns allowed and fantasy points per game allowed to the tight end position. That means Eric Ebron is an easy top-10 tight end for me in Week 10.
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 10
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings, at Bears
I've lost that lovin' feelin', In regard to Adam Thielen, I've lost that lovin' feelin', Now his points are gone, gone, gone, whoa-oh
If you think that song was bad, just remember you paid for the right to read it! Ha! Who looks dumb now? Still me? Yeah, that makes sense. OK. Here's why I'm no longer Hooked on a Thielen (I can't help it!): 4.7 targets, 2.7 catches, 38.7 yards. Those are his averages over the past three weeks. The misery extends beyond that, too. Thielen has fewer than 55 receiving yards in five of his eight games this year. Don't expect any of that to improve against a Bears defense that allows the second-fewest catches, third-fewest fantasy points and fourth-fewest yards per game to wide receivers.
You never close your eyes anymore when I give my tips. And there's no tenderness like before in your Twitter rips. You're trying hard not to show it, baby, But, baby, I know it ... You lost 'cause of Adam Thielen. Whoa, that Adam Thielen. You lost 'cause of Adam Thielen, Now you're in ... last ... place ... whoa-oh
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers, vs. Buccaneers
No music for Moore, other than maybe some sad trombone. Just four catches over his past two games, and his 14% target share is a distant third behind Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel. With just three red zone targets this entire year, it's hard to count on Carolina's WR3 against a Bucs defense that allows the sixth-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers. No, thanks.
Detroit WR TBD vs. Football Team
Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., Calvin Johnson ... I don't care who the WR1 for the Lions is this week, I don't feel good about him against the Football Team. Washington is allowing the fewest fantasy points and receptions per game to wide receivers this season and allowed just three receiving touchdowns to the position. If Golladay is active, you have to start him, but if Golladay is out, I'm still not all that excited about Jones.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens, at Patriots
It's not that Andrews isn't producing -- now he's barely even being used in the passing game. Andrews ran a season-low 14 routes last week and now has under 35 receiving yards in three straight games and in five of eight. It's not a good bet any of that improves Sunday night. Given how awful the position is this year, you likely still have to start him, but you can't feel good about it. New England is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
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