Okay, I did it. WAY TOO EARLY 2022 SENATE ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT NEVER ENDS -- (edited)
Safe R: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, KY (moves to likely if Charles Booker runs against Rand), LA, MO, OK, SC, SD, UT
Likely R: IA (Grassley, but he'll be 89 so maybe the Democrats have a better chance if it's an open seat?), NC (Burr supposedly said he wouldn't run again if he won in '16), OH (Portman)
Lean R: FL (Rubio, sure let's be Charlie Brown to the GOP's Lucy and try to kick that football once again)
Toss Up: GA (winner of the Warnock/Loeffler runoff. This is probably Lean/Likely R, but not until we get a name), PA (Toomey supposedly read the room and isn't gonna run for reelection), WI (Johnson)
Lean D: AZ (Mark Kelly now has to run for a full term, but in an unfriendly cycle; here's hoping Martha McSally wants to go for the trifecta.)
Likely D: CO (Bennet), NV (Cortez Castro), NH (Hassan)
Safe D: CA (though this is Kamala's seat, safe but unknown incumbent), CT, HI, IL, MD, NY (but AOC please primary Schumer), OR, VT, WA
The Republicans are still on defense here, with PA and WI the main targets, but they'll definitely want to win AZ back. It's a friendlier election for the GOP if Biden is President, but this may be a legit permanent demographic shift there. And I can't wait until we spend a bazillion dollars in Florida only for Rubio to get reelected by a point.
Way Too Early call: +1 D