|
In response to
"C&P? I don't subscribe. -- nm"
by
Reagen
|
Took out the long intro and is still long.
Posted by
spamlet
Jun 1 '21, 15:54
|
On to the Leafs.
I solicited insight from rival NHL team executives in the aftermath of the Leafs’ collapse. And I can tell you they did so while having tremendous respect for the Leafs’ management group but understanding that it’s a business and GM Kyle Dubas and his group have to learn from this latest setback.
Or, not overreact.
As you will see, it’s not a uniform reaction.
Before I get to it, though, a thought of my own. I think what’s going to be most interesting is how the MLSE Board of Directors react to this setback. My sense is that the patience/status quo option is not going to be a welcome answer for the owners. Not when MLSE is dolling out millions in July 1 signing bonuses to some of these players and still paying Mike Babcock $5.875 million through June 2023 not to coach the Leafs.
While it may be that staying patient and believing in the Leafs’ core and not overreacting is actually the route to go hockey-wise, I’m not sure the people in suits at MLSE are going to go for that business-wise.
But I certainly could be wrong.
My point is that before you get into the hockey part of all this, you have to start at the very top and work your way down.
This will be the toughest offseason of Brendan Shanahan’s seven-year term as Leafs president. He’s done wonders for the culture of the franchise and how things get done now, a lot of credit to him for that. But it’s a results-oriented business.
Now, here’s what some rival team executives had to say on the Leafs’ collapse and what’s next.
Team executive No. 1: It’s a surprise on the one hand. They are a “better” team than Montreal but that’s where it gets interesting.
I think it somewhat reinforces what I have thought for a while though. Good or bad, the reality is that the playoffs are different than the regular season. People seem unhappy that’s the reality. The fans and media seem to get annoyed that’s true and I can see why that’s the way people feel but it’s apparent that there is a different game when the regular season ends. Part of that is because there are fewer penalties called. I’m not sure that’s the main reason — I think it’s a small part of it.
I think the bigger thing is that players themselves become more desperate to win and they do things that they aren’t willing to do over the course of an 82-game season. And that’s why the game changes. Players who aren’t interested/willing to battle hard suddenly dig in more and that nullifies the pure offensive part of the game.
Just look at (Connor) McDavid. It’s not that he didn’t play well and didn’t compete hard — he was doing all that he could. But the truth of the matter is….the other team was all willing to pay the price and backcheck and play a focused and determined game all the time so the goals that McDavid scores in more of a free-wheeling sense just aren’t happening very often.
Somewhat the same thing with Toronto. I can’t say their top players were lazy. They wanted it and they tried but the other team was dug in and that serves to neutralize the skill advantage that the Leafs obviously have. And then it becomes a little bit random. Close games and OT games can bring random results because it’s such a small sample size.
Team executive No. 2: Not a very good division. I think that probably inflated expectations. I get it in that market. It’s not easy. The 2020-21 Maple Leafs shouldn’t have to pay for the sins of the past, a team that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004. Now I get it, their current core has had some collapses, to put it lightly.
It reminds me of when San Jose lost after being up 3-0 on L.A. and people were carving them.
They eventually got to the final. I know they didn’t win the Cup but they did, overall, have a lot of playoff success. So is that what Toronto is? Maybe Kyle shouldn’t do anything too drastic.
I know Marner will get crushed, but they need to let the dust settle. I think if they trade Mitch Marner, they’re going to be looking for a player like that for 20 years. I’m a big Mitch Marner fan. I’m a big Auston Mathews fan.
What are they going to get if they move Marner? They better go get Seth Jones then.
What are they going to do in goal? I think that’s the No. 1 thing for me. Because of expansion and things going on, I think the goalie market is probably going to be pretty hot, that they can probably figure out that 1a-1b and ride who’s hot.
Team executive No. 3: Trade one of the big pieces up front for D/G help. All offense hasn’t worked.
I don’t think Kyle or Sheldon (Keefe) should lose their jobs. But I do think someone has to tell them that the plan hasn’t worked. You got to change things. Trade one of those (big salary) guys.
You already had $5 million in your budget allocated to a goalie which will be freed up.
Team executive No. 4: Step 1: Complete a brutally honest philosophical self assessment.
If you speak to senior people they will quietly tell you they have concerns about the Leafs’ philosophy of: Focusing only on high octane offense with the belief that if you outscore everyone you will win. It seems they would rather beat you 6-5 than 2-1 and we all know that’s not how you succeed in the playoffs. And, reduce their myopic obsession with analytics as being the defacto decision maker. Analytics are important but should only be one of several criteria evaluated in every decision. Both publicly and privately people know that analytics has a disproportionate influence and makes all the player personnel decisions.
Step 2: A complete re-think of their team-building strategy. Their approach has been to collect the highest profile, high-octane offensive players possible and assemble them at the top of the roster. This is both disruptive from a team chemistry perspective and a salary cap management perspective.
From there, they seek out players who they can wedge into their limited cap space to fill out the roster. This results in is a top-heavy lineup with little to no balance from a cap space perspective, a team make up perspective and a competitive perspective. They seem to view the non core players as completely interchangeable parts and we all know that isn’t reality when building a team capable of going deep in the playoffs and winning a Stanley Cup.
Step 3: They need to redistribute some of their cap space differently throughout their lineup. This will provide greater levels of roster stability, overall depth and a much better, balanced team built for playoff competitiveness.
Step 4: Assuming they reduce their dependency on analytics, they need to stop trading draft picks. Their best players were drafted by the Leafs (albeit they were all high picks) and in order to provide a long term, competitive team, they need to ensure they have a steady flow of young players into the organization.
It will take courage to do this because it flies in the face of much of what they have publicly proclaimed they believe in. However, their beliefs have not rendered the desired results and true leadership will have the balls to admit as much and alter their approach. You know the old saying “No guts, no glory.”
Team executive No. 5: First of all, it’s tough to throw stones — everyone in the league is trying to do the same thing, win. Sometimes the process to achieve continued and advancing success takes some time, failures and setbacks, but the successful franchises balance the setbacks with huge strides forward; best examples being Tampa and Colorado.
So in the Leafs’ case, what they need to do next:
1. Probably need to address the goaltending situation (which is a huge challenge).
2. Fourth line could use some energy/role playoff players.
3. Fifth/sixth defensemen tougher to play against..
Not always about the most skilled players, sometimes it’s about the right fit/chemistry of a team and that is the art of team building.
My own final take: There was other feedback as well, but you get the picture. A lot of it goes back to teams who didn’t think the Leafs could make it work when they ended up with three players making $10+ million salaries in Mathews, Marner and John Tavares.
And it’s not just having three players making that much of the cap, but it’s the fact all three are forwards.
My initial feeling right now is to actually fight the urge to do something too drastic. That there’s so much risk in doing something you’re going to regret. I don’t think you win a Marner trade, for instance.
I go back to how long it took Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals to finally get out of the second round and ultimately win the Cup. He was 32 when it happened.
The Lightning came under the Steve Yzerman/Julien BriseBois regime in 2010 and didn’t win the Cup until 2020.
I know Leafs fans don’t want to hear that. It’s been 17 years and counting now since they won a playoff series. Patience is running thin for a fan base that’s been kicked in the teeth for too long.
But the real question is how patient ownership is still willing to be.
|