ST Alpha - "The only thing that points you in that direction is Disney Trending. Which isn't scientific or known. -- (edited)" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Raya is probably the most profitable film of the pandemic. Disney just hasn't said the numbers for it. -- nm" by David

The only thing that points you in that direction is Disney Trending. Which isn't scientific or known. -- (edited)

Posted by Inigo (aka Inigo) Aug 1 '21, 09:41

Here's what we do know:

- Disney only released numbers for Premiere Access for Jungle Cruise and Black Widow. It stands to reason that's because all the other films released were below those numbers.

- Cruella has better box office and has a sequel announce. Raya has rumors (that started before the movie opened) but no announcement.

- Raya most likely has a budget between $125 million and $150 million like other Disney animated films. When you factor in budget, how much it made worldwide, and marketing, Raya would have had to make $100 million in Premiere Access just to break even.

- Cruella had very comparable numbers in Nielsen to Raya the first three weeks, and Disney was quiet about both of them.

Responses:

I think you know that I disagree with pretty much everything you say is known. (Post edited to correct one math error) -- (edited) - David Aug 1, 10:23 11
- You lose me when you say 2/3 of viewing minutes are repeats is comically high. Ask the parents of a Disney kid…how many times did the kid - Will Hunting Aug 1, 10:55 5
  - It's also doesn't account for multiple people and families using a Disney+ account. That can seriously decrease the amount of money/per minutes viewed - Inigo Aug 1, 11:16 3
    - I'll go with Occam's Razor: Disney is a PR company. If they had something worth the PR, they would have released it. They didn't. - Will Hunting Aug 1, 11:59 1
      - That's the wrong Occam's Razor. Disney is a business. It costs them money if the talent know they're underpaid. -- nm - David Aug 1, 13:49
    - Or any international buyers at all. This isn't as finite as you want it to be. -- nm - David Aug 1, 11:21
  - Remember the second-screen comment. -- nm - David Aug 1, 11:15
- We'll find out about Black Widow's Nielsen's numbers on Thursday. - Inigo Aug 1, 10:49 3
  - Puppies and rainbows. -- (edited) - David Aug 1, 11:14 2
    - No worries. I still love you. :) - Inigo Aug 1, 11:52 1
      - With two million in sales and a 134-minute run-time, Black Widow should have a Nielsen rating of at least 268 million minutes. - David Aug 1, 14:11
- Inigo just became my hero. -- nm - Spawn Aug 1, 10:40

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The only thing that points you in that direction is Disney Trending. Which isn't scientific or known. -- (edited)

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