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In response to
"The only thing that points you in that direction is Disney Trending. Which isn't scientific or known. -- (edited)"
by
Inigo
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I think you know that I disagree with pretty much everything you say is known. (Post edited to correct one math error) -- (edited)
Posted by
David (aka David)
Aug 1 '21, 10:23
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I think you're missing something pretty obvious here. We now know EXACTLY why Disney wasn't reporting streaming numbers. It was negotiating behind the scenes with talent on new, modern deals that account for the updated revenue model. If those CAA bastards had known how well Raya was doing on Disney+, they would have demanded more money.
Also, you're incorrectly assuming that Raya threw under those two films. I feel *confident* it's the opposite based on the data we have.
You're calling Cruella's 280 million minutes comparable to Raya's 344 million minutes, which isn't correct on two levels. Raya's 117 minutes, while Cruella's 134. So, 280M minutes = 2.09 million viewings. Meanwhile, 344 million = 2.94 million viewings.
At $30 a pop, that's a revenue difference of $25.5 million...in one weekend. Cruella takes $62.7 million, while Raya hits $88.7 million. In one weekend.
So, the broad strokes don't work here. You have to dive into the data. Also, just to drive the point home, Raya *still* reached 160 million minutes the weekend Cruella opened. It remained steady in its hold, which means steady sales after opening weekend.
If we look at the rest of its first month, over the next three weeks, it had 787 million minutes combined. Even if we say that two-thirds of those are repeats, a comically high estimate, that's *still* 260 million in new sales.
260/117=2.222 and that number times 30 is $66.7 million (EDIT: corrected a math error here where I doubled the total for some idiotic reason). That brings us up to what I consider a worst-case scenario estimate of $155.4 million in Disney+ revenue during Raya's first month. Unlike with box office, Disney is netting more than 80% of that revenue, too.
Cruella's at 1.6 million units sold during the same timeframe, higher if you believe it's less susceptible to repeat viewings. So, that's $48 million more in revenue for it during the first month.
Raya had a budget of $100 million, which people started to question after the fact for whatever reason. In reality, Raya was the cheapest animated film Disney has released in a while because it didn't have the high-end negative cost that adds to the bottom line.
Streaming services don't advertise the way that studios always have for blockbuster movies. So, Disney saves money that way while maximizing revenue with the vertical integration.
And here's the mind-blowing part. Nielsen has a blind spot that Trending has revealed.
Have we ever mentioned Bluey or Mickey Mouse Club on the podcast? No. Those films are almost always in the top 3 in Trending. Why aren't we talking about them? They're not on Nielsen...ever. Is Trending flawed? Possibly.
However, it's more likely just a representation of how Nielsen data is flawed. They don't evaluate second-screen viewing. In other words, they miss kids' programming. That wouldn't hurt Cruella's numbers much since it skews shockingly adult. Raya, on the other hand, would have hundreds of millions of minutes of data that doesn't get accounted for.
This aspect remains in question, which is why we haven't talked about it much yet. Anecdotally, Black Widow never finished higher than 15th on Trending on its opening weekend when it reportedly earned $60 million. Jungle Cruise, which never made the top 25 (!), is reporting $30 million.
Cruella generally hovered in the 8-12 range. Raya and the Last Dragon got as high as #2 and rarely fell lower than sixth during its first three weeks. That's why I'm so confident about its sales, just as I was stroking out over Manifest's Netflix performance.
Disney+ and Netflix will flat out tell you what people are watching if you just load the app. And Kim will confirm that we look several times a day. To wit, I can tell you right now that All American, Outer Banks, and Love Is Blind will all make Nielsen's charts for the last week of July.
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