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In response to
"No worries. I still love you. :)"
by
Inigo
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With two million in sales and a 134-minute run-time, Black Widow should have a Nielsen rating of at least 268 million minutes.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Aug 1 '21, 14:11
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It'll get vastly more immediate weekend re-watches than Cruella or Mulan. The conversation grows murkier with Raya, but I suspect Black Widow gets more instant repeats in its first three days.
So, the minutes number we're watching comes with some hidden complexities. It'll be the first where we have a baseline, but that two million in sales is all we know.
I haven't had time to fully evaluate the person's article, but 1.18 million didn't pass my laugh test. Kim and I were already talking about this before you made your posts this morning.
So, I just circled back to her about expectations for Raya's opening weekend based on everything we've seen. She thinks the *floor* is 3.5 million.
She's always been higher than I am about this, but I absolutely believe that the floor is Black Widow's numbers, two million in sales. Realistically, I think it's somewhere between 3 and 4 million. More importantly, it's hung around the top of trending on Nielsen for MUCH longer than other Premier Access titles.
Also, just making a broad generalization here, Antenna uses *sign-ups* for its calcs. They have no idea what they're doing so nobody should be using them. I'm not even crazy about Samba, and that's with their numbers matching up pretty well with Nielsen's.
I feel strongly that you're placing far too much emphasis on box office. Exhibitors spit the bit with Raya by *forcing* consumers to watch it at home. That was so short-sighted I wanted to slap everyone involved.
Since we're all learning new behavior, I strongly encourage you to do the same legwork that Kim and I do. Pull up Disney+ and Netflix three or four times a day. I mean it when I say that they're showing more data than people realize. It's really fascinating. People who don't track it are naturally suspicious of the data, but it's largely matching Nielsen.
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