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Matt Gurney: If the moderates can't hold the CPC, Canada is in deep, deep trouble

Posted by Name Withheld By Request (aka BlueKopo) Sep 17 '21, 14:07

"If [O'Toole] loses, he's gone, and the hardliners in the CPC and much of the party's grassroots will be unlikely to try a moderate leader again for ... a long time, if ever. The party would likely retrench deeper into its own base, lose more elections, and become ever-more detached from the mainstream. Does death spiral sound about right?

"For a lot of non-Conservative voters, that probably sounds fantastic. "What do we need to do to make this happen?" I can hear them wondering. That’s dangerously naïve. The right-wing movement in Canada isn't going to just evaporate. It can either find direction in a party led by a moderate leader at the head of a disciplined mainstream entity with a presence in all regions of the country — or it can find it in other places. A strong and viable CPC is a bulwark against the rising power of a hard, nasty right-wing fringe in this country, but only if it’s led by the right people."

This is bang on. (theline.substack.com)

Responses:

I think it's right take, but there's also no great solution. - Roger More Sep 17, 14:22 16
- How about holding their own side to account for the demonization of the moderates? How about accepting that 80% agreement on most issues is... - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:30 15
  - I don't think there's much mood for that these days, and I can see why. It's like saying "vote for Faust" -- nm - Roger More Sep 17, 15:03
  - I don't get what he has done that is so devisive...mask and vaccine mandates? no machine guns? acknowledging climate change? -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:50 6
    - The utter shamelessness of announcing a vaccine policy on a Friday, calling an election on Sunday and then…. - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 14:59 4
      - but haven't everyone but the NDP been actively voting for an election? every non-confidence vote they tried to have an election... -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 15:08 3
        
        Because they are the opposition. Seriously, it’s parliamentary tradition to vote against budgets, throne speeches, etc if in opposition. - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:30 2
        
        see, I get this (still wouldn't vote for O'Toole given his wishy washy "what's my policy on this again? the offical one or the one I just made up?") -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 15:34 1
        
        Sure. “He’ll say anytime to get elected” feels right about him and it is why I’m disappointed. But I don’t think for one minute that he isn’t better…. - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:41
    - Economics is what they need to work on the most. That would win my brother over (big-time Conservative (Peter McKay and him are buds)) -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:52
  - See, your words sound reasonable. Your original quote (not yours), less so. -- nm* - Andie Sep 17, 14:36 6
    - Yes, this is where I land as well. -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:37 5
      - Guys, with respect, it’s an op-Ed headline. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 14:44 4
        
        I ... don't know what that means for this discussion. That it was a waste of time and we should have ignored it? -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:46 3
        
        Just that it is by design meant to be a provocative quote. It’s the idea is embedded in the piece that now. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 14:51 2
        
        I understand the first part, but the second part word not sense make -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:55 1
        
        Was using voice. Sorry. My point is that the headline is not how the piece shows be judged. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 14:59
The Liberals have moved quite Left over the last 20 years though....they used to straddle the centre much more.... - Walt_Disney Sep 17, 14:20 12
- Check your math. I think that means the centre has moved. -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:23 11
  - I think the centre is still where it always was but too often the main supporters of each party have drifted more left and right. - Walt_Disney Sep 17, 14:31 1
    - It’s definitely drifted socially and economically leftward. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:02
  - (And the right has gone fringe) -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:24 8
    - I mean, PPC is super fringe. But CPC only seems a bit more polite, not a bit more centred. -- nm - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:39 7
      - The PPC will get a million votes on Monday. That’s fringe? Like, what do you want any Prime Minister to do to quell that anger? -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:02 6
        
        At the core of the PPC, they want capitulation on any number of policies that are not only intolerable on their face but will cause people to die - Reagen Sep 17, 15:08 4
        
        We have to live with them though. What’s the strategy? It won’t conflict away. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:24 3
        
        I don't know how to argue with lunatics. -- nm - Reagen Sep 17, 15:35 2
        
        So, wouldn’t that logically lead to, “Can’t argue with them. Need a new approach.”? -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:42 1
        
        Possibly? But policy concessions are non-negotiable to them. -- nm - Reagen Sep 17, 15:49
        
        5% is fringe though. The way the Greens are fringe. -- nm - Roger More Sep 17, 15:08
Why is this never the case for the far left, who have never held federal power in Canada? -- nm - Reagen Sep 17, 14:16 1
- I think it is coming. Just slower. Part of that is the move of the Liberals leftward. If they were Chretien or Turner era Liberals, the activists.... - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:27
did O'Toole collude with Kenney to delay Alberta's emergency response? -- (link) - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:16 3
- So I see what the narrative is going into the last couple days of the election. JT can go on vacation to Barbados at this point. - Mop Sep 17, 14:21 1
  - Trudeau: fighting hecklers and anti-vaxxers while getting rocks thrown at him. O'Toole: not answering staged questions in front of a backdrop -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:22
- this is what I alluded to on B2. -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:19
The Libs stake exclusive claim to the middle and the NDP remains the left. We don't anyone to the right of the Libs. -- nm - Mop Sep 17, 14:11
honestly, that wording sounds like a threat. - Andie Sep 17, 14:09 28
- I feel like the GOP tried that tack a few years ago, and look how that turned out. - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:21 15
  - it is what they are saying, but instead of controlling themselves, they are blaming it on people who DON'T vote for them. -- nm - Andie Sep 17, 14:23 14
    - That's a very paternalistic way of framing it. "Control themselves"? - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:25 13
      - I think you're mixing up definitions of the word threat in this thread (completely accidentally, I mean). You're saying "this is a looming problem." - Beryllium Sep 17, 14:30 2
        
        I view it as a threat on par with climate change. I really do. It’s about existential social fabric in Canada/North America. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:03
        
        yes. this. -- nm - Andie Sep 17, 14:30
      - The wording in your original post makes it sounds like the future of the Conservative Party will be out of the control of the Conservative Party if -- (edited) - Andie Sep 17, 14:29 9
        
        It's 2012 and "Binders full of women" making Romney out to be some sexist religious nut and landing Trump in 2016, then people rediscovering that.... - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:33 5
        
        Romney is sexist and has sided with the lunatic fringe much more often than not, just less than his counterparts. -- nm - No Longer Calm David Sep 17, 15:00
        
        So, the implication is to reward Romney so you don't get Trump...but if Romney isn't worthy, that's blackmail per se. - Will Hunting Sep 17, 14:55 1
        
        I get what you and David are saying here and maybe it is fair, but the broader point is that there is no leader of either party that will be able to… - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:37
        
        Lol. Nice to see the conservative persecution complex is alive and well. -- nm - znufrii Sep 17, 14:43
        
        I think that incident, in tandem with the 47% video, showed exactly who Romney was - Reagen Sep 17, 14:40
        
        It's the dril tweet. "Keep yelling 'shut the fuck up' at me, it only makes my opinions worse" -- nm - Reagen Sep 17, 14:31 2
        
        It's not quite that though, at least with me. I think there are those out there that fit, but it's the lack of any humanity being put towards those... - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:36 1
        
        (I don't mean you, I mean the original sentiment) -- nm - Reagen Sep 17, 14:41
- It's an acknowledgement of a threat, yeah. - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:16 9
  - The Liberals ads they started recently are brutal for O'Toole imo. every misstep is being highlighted and beating him over the head with it -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:18 8
    - O'Toole and team have disappointed me by being seemingly flat-footed in response, but this is also why I always say those who.... - Name Withheld By Request Sep 17, 14:23 7
      - I think the piece that's missing is that there's been a lot of societal change in the last fifty years, and the left wing and the right wing have - Roger More Sep 17, 14:46 1
        
        There's also the disinformation movement, which is less severe in Canada than elsewhere, but not nothing. - Reagen Sep 17, 14:58
      - It's the tail wagging the dog, IMO - Reagen Sep 17, 14:28
      - to be fair, if there were true moderates it might appeal. - Andie Sep 17, 14:27 3
        
        Think back to what they said about Tori when he was the leader of the opposition Siri it’s not an apples to apples comparison. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 14:50 2
        
        I was there, i know. What i am saying is you think people are entrenched and can't be swayed by changes in people, and i was using it as an example -- (edited) - Andie Sep 17, 14:53 1
        
        Sure, but they also elected Ford one election earlier so maybe it’s not the liberal electorate it feels in your circles. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Sep 17, 15:43
- Also: "If the fascists really are on the march, do you trust the the Liberals to stop them?" - Guigue Sep 17, 14:14
- yup -- nm - Beaker Sep 17, 14:13

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Matt Gurney: If the moderates can't hold the CPC, Canada is in deep, deep trouble

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