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In response to "Well this stat doesn't feel good. -- (link)" by Beryllium

Because that's a backwards way of looking at it. (Warning: math inside.) -- (edited)

Posted by Cowboy BeBaron (aka BaronWasteland) Nov 4 '21, 15:30

What percentage of BCers age 70+ are vaccinated? 90%? (Probably higher, but let's use that.)

Then the vaccinated group has a death rate of X per 0.9P and the unvaccinated group has a death rate of X per 0.1P. So vaccination yields a reduction in the death rate of 1-(0.1/0.9)=89%. I'll take that every day and twice on Sundays.

That the number of vaccinated deaths relative to the number of unvaccinated deaths grows is a natural consequence of an increased vaccination rate. As you approach 100%, almost everyone who dies will have been vaccinated, but the overall rate of deaths will go down because vaccination works.

Responses:

Yup. -- nm - znufrii Nov 4, 15:39
The way it's phrased, it's probably including numbers from early in the pandemic where there were no vaccinations, further skewing the numbers -- nm - Beryllium Nov 4, 15:35 2
- A more succinct version of my math post: They're telling you row percents, but what's actually important are column percents. - Cowboy BeBaron Nov 4, 15:47 1
  - And the over-70s are much more likely to have underlying health conditions which would further increase their death rate, vaccinated or not. -- nm - Meg Nov 4, 15:53

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Because that's a backwards way of looking at it. (Warning: math inside.) -- (edited)

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