ST Alpha - "I think that's has already shown, and will show more to be alarmist." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "FTR, the head of the Ontario Science Table (advising committee) said on Dec 13th "This variant here is so absolutely infectious now...This will reach -- (edited)" by Candie Cane

I think that's has already shown, and will show more to be alarmist.

Posted by Inigo (aka Inigo) Dec 21 '21, 08:31

He's only looking at the infection rate and assuming it will stay constant. We're already seeing cases in South Africa drop off. He didn't account for the likely possibility of the virus going away quicker.

Him calling the the early data of omicron being less deadly as a myth was irresponsible. He's going to look very foolish very soon, imo.

Responses:

doesn't O have higher reinfection rates too or has that not been scienced yet? -- nm - amanda jeans Dec 21, 08:33 1
- I believe that's true. Definitely higher than Delta. -- nm - Inigo Dec 21, 08:55
*shrug* let's hope so, but just assuming he's wrong seems dangerous. -- nm - Candie Cane Dec 21, 08:32 9
- .66% (probably more like .5%) of South Africa being infected by Omicron is not assuming. It's what the data is. - Inigo Dec 21, 08:36 8
  - WHO literally said 3 days ago that it is too soon to say it is less severe. Yes, there are indicators but that is not yet proven. -- (edited) - Candie Cane Dec 21, 08:41 7
    - I don't have much really to add to the discussion. But I did want to mention that 3 days in OmicronLand is a long ass time in comparison. -- nm - Qale Dec 21, 09:05
    - It's worth remembering too that Delta was both more transmissible and also more likely to put people in hospital, in the ICU, or in the mortuary than - Roger More Dec 21, 08:51 1
      - Yeah, there's rules of thumb on this but they aren't carved in stone like some sort of equation. Biology is messy. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 08:57
    - Sure, let's be cautious since this is early in the variant's life. But we should also be cautious about how many people will get infected, too. - Inigo Dec 21, 08:46 3
      - the 24 hour news cycle is so dangerous here. we are so used to "information now" that "chill while science works" isn't acceptable. there are no - amanda jeans Dec 21, 09:04 1
        
        this is such a good point. things get reported, then we know more, and everyone is stuck on what was first said. (See the doc who first said vaccines - Candie Cane Dec 21, 09:36
      - Also, thank you for having a calm discussion about this, Andie, MDH, mandy and all. :) -- nm - Inigo Dec 21, 08:55

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I think that's has already shown, and will show more to be alarmist.

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