ST Alpha - ".66% (probably more like .5%) of South Africa being infected by Omicron is not assuming. It's what the data is." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "*shrug* let's hope so, but just assuming he's wrong seems dangerous. -- nm" by Candie Cane

.66% (probably more like .5%) of South Africa being infected by Omicron is not assuming. It's what the data is.

Posted by Inigo (aka Inigo) Dec 21 '21, 08:36

It's already going away there.

The problem he and some other scientists are doing is assuming the absolute worst about the infection rate yet ignoring the data about it being less severe. As if one is an absolute, and the other is hopeful myths. They're both just data.

Responses:

WHO literally said 3 days ago that it is too soon to say it is less severe. Yes, there are indicators but that is not yet proven. -- (edited) - Candie Cane Dec 21, 08:41 7
- I don't have much really to add to the discussion. But I did want to mention that 3 days in OmicronLand is a long ass time in comparison. -- nm - Qale Dec 21, 09:05
- It's worth remembering too that Delta was both more transmissible and also more likely to put people in hospital, in the ICU, or in the mortuary than - Roger More Dec 21, 08:51 1
  - Yeah, there's rules of thumb on this but they aren't carved in stone like some sort of equation. Biology is messy. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 08:57
- Sure, let's be cautious since this is early in the variant's life. But we should also be cautious about how many people will get infected, too. - Inigo Dec 21, 08:46 3
  - the 24 hour news cycle is so dangerous here. we are so used to "information now" that "chill while science works" isn't acceptable. there are no - amanda jeans Dec 21, 09:04 1
    - this is such a good point. things get reported, then we know more, and everyone is stuck on what was first said. (See the doc who first said vaccines - Candie Cane Dec 21, 09:36
  - Also, thank you for having a calm discussion about this, Andie, MDH, mandy and all. :) -- nm - Inigo Dec 21, 08:55

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.66% (probably more like .5%) of South Africa being infected by Omicron is not assuming. It's what the data is.

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