ST Alpha - "This doesn’t seem right. Prior to the Justin Tucker 66-yard kick, the Ravens had an 88.2% chance to win statistically?" (Reading a Post)

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This doesn’t seem right. Prior to the Justin Tucker 66-yard kick, the Ravens had an 88.2% chance to win statistically?

Posted by Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz) Jan 4 '22, 08:10

They’re saying the numbers backed up a Ravens win 7/8ths of the time via either a Hail Mary or the longest kick ever?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32958719/ranking-nfl-32-walk-winners-most-least-thrilling-2021-set-record-final-play-victories (www.espn.com)

Responses:

Win probabilities are bullshit, is the answer. -- nm - Reagen Jan 4, 08:14 5
- I always thought it was like cards. History says you have X chance based on past exact events. - Will Hunting Jan 4, 08:16 4
  - Some sites have the point spread built-in, too. So, if you’re 14 point favs to the Lions win probability is increased -- nm - Flavorize Jan 4, 08:24
  - I agree with this but that would make the % too high for a kick that long, except for if they adjusted it up for Tucker -- nm - rollo Jan 4, 08:19 2
    - Right…he’s Kicker God but there’s no way he’s 7/8 from 66. - Will Hunting Jan 4, 08:21 1
      - Career: 91%. Career 50+: 73%. I would have believed 67% on that kick. -- nm - rollo Jan 4, 08:27
They put the "Lions' Factor" in their calculations. -- nm - VMan Jan 4, 08:13
STI question. Since you're playing RC twice, which is the STI game? -- nm* - spamlet Jan 4, 08:11 3
- I uh….no idea? -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 4, 08:13 2
  - I'm going to count the first one. -- nm - spamlet Jan 4, 08:31
  - The one you win.... -- nm - JD Jan 4, 08:14

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