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1: Nov 30, 15:54
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6: Nov 28, 09:42
7: Nov 27, 18:07
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Posts: 156
In response to
"
This doesn’t seem right. Prior to the Justin Tucker 66-yard kick, the Ravens had an 88.2% chance to win statistically?
"
by
Will Hunting
Win probabilities are bullshit, is the answer. -- nm
Posted by
Reagen
Jan 4 '22, 08:14
(No message)
Responses:
I always thought it was like cards. History says you have X chance based on past exact events.
-
Will Hunting
Jan 4, 08:16
4
Some sites have the point spread built-in, too. So, if you’re 14 point favs to the Lions win probability is increased -- nm
-
Flavorize
Jan 4, 08:24
I agree with this but that would make the % too high for a kick that long, except for if they adjusted it up for Tucker -- nm
-
rollo
Jan 4, 08:19
2
Right…he’s Kicker God but there’s no way he’s 7/8 from 66.
-
Will Hunting
Jan 4, 08:21
1
Career: 91%. Career 50+: 73%. I would have believed 67% on that kick. -- nm
-
rollo
Jan 4, 08:27
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