Fantasy Outlook for the Atlanta Braves...this is from behind a paywall, but an interesting read via Lucas Biery
Posted by
Flavorize (aka Flavorize)
Feb 19 '22, 11:20
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Braves Team Outlook
Coming off a 2021 World Series title, the Braves will look to assert their NL dominance as a fully complete team, with an excellent offense that had a wonderfully strong base built up around Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Co. Timely playoff contributions from trade imports Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler also proved pivotal last October. Moving forward, the core of this team is still firmly intact, and they will add Ronald Acuña Jr. back to the fold early on in the season once he is fully recovered from an ACL tear. How they fill out the roster once the lockout is over remains a mystery, but they have multiple elite frontline starters, good depth across the rotation, a loaded bullpen to pair with an elite infield, and lots of financial flexibility to add even more talent to the roster.
Projected Lineup:
SS Dansby Swanson
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
DH Marcell Ozuna
RF Adam Duvall
C Travis d'Arnaud
1B Orlando Arcia
LF Drew Waters
CF Cristian Pache
Projected Pitching Staff:
SP1: Max Fried
SP2: Charlie Morton
SP3: Ian Anderson
SP4: Huascar Ynoa
SP5: Tucker Davidson
CL: Will Smith
SU1: Tyler Matzek
SU2: Luke Jackson
Breakout Candidate: Max Fried (SP)
Max Fried has already established himself as a very quality front of the rotation starter, but there is upside for more in terms of his fantasy if he is able to top 180+ innings moving forward. Fried has long been a big-time fantasy pitching prospect, and he has been able to stifle HR's (career .89 HR/9.) Fried also goes very deep into games, pitching at least six innings in his last 12 starts, with five of those starts at seven innings and 2 complete game shuttys as well. Fried is an absolute gamer on the mound, pitching for a good team in a really nice division context, with potential for a high volume of innings. I am excited about him as a fantasy SP2 despite the non-elite K rate, based on his ability to limit HR’s, go super deep into games and be on a winning club in a weak division.
Sleeper: Dansby Swanson (SS)
Dansby Swanson isn’t really a sleeper, but he also kind of is. Let me explain: the former first overall draft pick back in 2015 has flashed bouts of success, with bland but solid enough showings in 2018 and 2019, but he has leveled up his ISO every single year since 2017. Linear growth is always good to see. Swanson is a perfectly solid SS option in all fantasy leagues, and he is even juicer as a Middle Infield option for those going heavy at SS. Swanson will help fantasy investors across the board, with the exception of batting average, but he will be far from a BA drain. Expectations of 25 HR’s, 80+ runs, and RBI, with double-digit steals and a decent BA are in the cards for Swanson. To add further security to his profile, his good defense at SS further cements his playing time, as he played 160 games last year for Atlanta, a wonderful total for a young and spry SS like Swanson.
Bust: Austin Riley (3B)
Austin Riley is being drafted like a locked-in four-category contributor, often inside the top 60 overall. Riley is being bought high after a wonderful 2021, in which he hit .303 with 33 HR’s across 662 PA’s, an incredible year for the ages. With that being said, Riley isn’t a guy that should be drafted as a guaranteed BA producer, despite his 2021 season. Riley will have a high floor in a really nice lineup, making him a likely bet to be very good, but his .368 BABIP will likely come down back to earth, with which a line closer to a .270 BA with 30 HR’s and strong counting stats should be expected. Nolan Arenado can produce a similar line, and he is available 30+ picks later in many drafts, not to mention Nolan has far more of a track record. In the right build, Riley makes a ton of sense, but I will not buy high on him based on the opportunity cost of missing out on steals guys available where he goes, as well as closers or high-end SPs. The price on Riley is too rich for my blood.
Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects:
Drew Waters (OF)
Drew Waters was formerly an exciting low-level minors prospect but he has sputtered lately, as he has struck out 32% of the time in AAA over 578 PA’s, a horrible number when you consider that AAA is much worse than the MLB. Still, Waters has some power and speed, decent defensive value, and there is still hope for him given the fact he is only 23. He’s a watch-list candidate at best or a Round 50 Draft-And-Hold dart, but he needs to trim the K rate a lot before Atlanta will be willing to let him debut. A trade could also help him clear his mind and begin his MLB career with a change of scenery. An approach change might occur, but we need to see more first before being excited.
Cristian Pache (CF)
An 80-grade defensive CF, Cristian Pache always reminded me of a Jackie Bradley Jr. type of profile, given his inconsistent bat but amazing CF glove. On a second division team, Pache might have broken into a real role, but he has yet to show enough to force Atlanta’s hand. The knock-on Pache is that his stolen base acumen has been inefficient, as he gets caught far too often to receive a green light. That is in addition to his high K rates, low BB rates, and propensity to hit worse than league average. The fact he still could get playing time despite these warts is a testament to his wonderful CF defense, which has received an 80 grade, the highest honors awarded in scouting terms. Pache is a desperation add in Draft-And-Holds, or in the deepest of fantasy leagues. While there is a monster athlete here, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze since he cannot hit enough to make a difference, especially because his OBP won’t be high nor can he steal bases efficiently.
Bold Prediction: Max Fried Wins The NL Cy Young
He has been good before, but this year I think Max Fried hits a new level, winning the NL Cy Young award while topping 200 innings pitched with a sub-3 ERA and 18+ wins, delivering a division title to Atlanta in the process.
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