My hot take on the Ukraine invasion based on largely uninformed speculation. Please correct me.
Posted by
Mop (aka rburriel)
Feb 27 '22, 11:30
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The Russians had a shock-and-awe strategy similar to the invasion of Iraq except that only works against a conscript force with a central authoritarian leader. And even then, it’s not like the invasion of Iraq was a cakewalk.
Russian intended to sweep in, capture some airfields, then fly in additional forces, while armor moved in from the borders. Except they sent a conscript force against a professional, western trained military.
Russians forces are very top-down because they’re a conscript force. No real battlefield discretion. You’ll recall the debacle of the tank rush into Grozny during the Chechan conflict. Russia eventually won that, but only after a protracted conflict and a scorched earth approach. That’s not really in the cards in Ukraine as the world community continues to come to Ukraine’s aide. Ukraine will lose a war of attrition if the war goes on indefinitely, but it doesn’t seem like it can. Russia needs time to regroup and launch a second offensive, but that’s time that Ukraine can use to fortify itself and for those NATO supplies to arrive. This can turn into a quagmire except Putin wouldn’t survive long enough for that.
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