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fascinating (to me) election stuff. this seat will almost certainly be won by whoever comes in second place, which is currently a 40-vote difference.

Labor/Green preferences tend to flow overwhelmingly to each other rather than the Liberals (like if you're voting Labor/Green you're way more likely to rank the other one higher than the Liberals), so whoever comes in second will get ~90% of the preference votes from whoever comes in third, which will push them ahead of the Liberal.

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