ST Alpha - "Decline, it will be the better part of a decade before Tesla is upset as the EV leader, if then. So, yes, competition is coming, but" (Reading a Post)

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Decline, it will be the better part of a decade before Tesla is upset as the EV leader, if then. So, yes, competition is coming, but

Posted by TWuG Jun 14 '22, 13:13

Right now, the competition isn't between EVs it's between EVs and ICE.

Tesla cannot meet current demand for EVs, so every new entrant to the market is important and needed. But the idea that legacy builders will somehow over take Tesla as the dominant EV makers in the US is laughable. They're 5-10 years behind in technology, dealing with dealer networks that are threatened by EVs because they need less maintenance, and still relying on parts bin designing for their EV designs. They are essentially converting cars designed to be ICE into EVs instead of building EVs from the ground up. That's changing with some of the newer offerings, which is good.

Responses:

Do not underestimate name recognition/history. Many would buy a GM/MINI/Honda... before a Tesla if given good options. I might even say, *most* would. -- nm - Spawn Jun 14, 13:23 39
- Well that and the negative perception of Elon Musk. - Strongbad Jun 14, 13:55 2
  - I want tesla and spacex and starlink and so forth to succeed, but - Beryllium Jun 14, 13:59
  - It's part of it! -- nm - Skeleton Spawn Jun 14, 13:57
- You'd think that would incentivize legacy builders to actually build EVs. They keep claiming that they will, and I hope they do. - TWuG Jun 14, 13:31 3
  - It's unfair to say that their entries are plagued with problems. They are Fords and Chevys. - Beryllium Jun 14, 13:56 2
    - They are finding the learning curve is steeper than they thought. -- nm - TWuG Jun 14, 13:58 1
      - No, they just suck at building cars at the best of times. heheh -- nm - Beryllium Jun 14, 13:59
- TWuG isn't wrong about the dealership model destroying the car market though. Saw a post the other day with a $20k markup on a new Kia Forte - oblique Jun 14, 13:31 2
  - Try a market adjustment (i.e. doubling of the pric) on a F150 Lightning -- (link) - zork Jun 14, 14:37 [Backboard]
  - auction them on ebay (note for awhile competition for apartments in San Fran was so intense a landlord put an apartment up on ebay... - zeitgeist Jun 14, 13:48
- Someone's going to come out with the EV version of a Honda Civic and it's going to ... well blow up is the wrong choice of words, but... -- nm - Reagen Jun 14, 13:29 28
  - problem (at least in the US) is both foreign and domestic makers have basically abandoned the non-SUV ICE models and now they can't un-SUV their EVs - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 14:01 19
    - ~You wanna be a big shot! You wanna be the big man. You wanna hold a big gun? You gotta have a quick hand.~ -- (edited) - Qale As Folk Jun 14, 17:10
    - e.g. the actual maker of the Civic's only 2024 fully EV model will be this dumb ugly piece of shit SUV -- (link) - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 14:07 17
      - The Japanese builders have been strangely absent in the EV market. -- nm - TWuG Jun 14, 14:16 16
        
        Honda needs to bring this Cutie Patootie to north america -- (link) - Beryllium Jun 14, 14:27 6
        
        110 mile range simply isn't going to sell. - spamlet Jun 14, 14:31 4
        
        It would be perfect for a little runabout. That's about 3x the average daily driving distance, and plenty of city folks throw under that average. - Beryllium Jun 14, 14:38 2
        
        Yeah, most people never need anything close to the smaller ranges but are deathly afraid of them -- nm - zork Jun 14, 14:42
        
        it makes sense as a PHEV range, where you can gas up more infrequently for driving longer distances but nobody in California's gonna charge every 110m -- nm - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 14:41
        
        Yup. Otherwise Make Mine MINI. -- nm - Spawn Jun 14, 14:32
        
        it's a marketing problem, not a tech problem -- nm* - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 14:29
        
        not so strangely in the case of Toyota because of their bet on hydrogen. -- nm - Reagen Jun 14, 14:22 7
        
        Japan was going all in on hydrogen and gave a lot of incentives to their automakers to go that way too. -- nm - spamlet Jun 14, 14:32 6
        
        with good cause. EV alone can't scale to the current size of the ICE market, for myriad reasons - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 14:35 5
        
        Batteries work with Moore's Law too - Reagen Jun 14, 14:51 3
        
        solid state (if/when it gets here) should help. but there's still the charging infrastructure problem that has no easy fix, at least in cities of size - hollywood big shot Jun 14, 15:09 2
        
        A big part of the solution will be garages, employers and shopping putting in Chargers. -- nm - Reagen Jun 14, 15:45 1
        
        Destination charging is probably more important than travel charging for a good portion of drivers - TWuG Jun 14, 16:10
        
        Biden will fix that! -- nm - Spawn Jun 14, 14:40
        
        Toyota kept going for too long with what turned out to be an interim technology and has yet to change course - JD Jun 14, 14:22
  - GM is trying with the price drop on the Bolt. - TWuG Jun 14, 13:39 7
    - Doesn't work with the interior. I want a cockpit, not a flight deck. - Spawn Jun 14, 14:23 1
      - I'm not sure I understand the complaint. -- nm - Reagen Jun 14, 14:26
    - tesla doesn't make an affordable hatch does it? all I ever see is the sedan. -- nm - amanda Jun 14, 13:45 4
      - No. Cheapest they make is the Standard Range Model 3 that starts in the low $40s - TWuG Jun 14, 13:56
      - tesla doesn't make an affordable car :) -- nm - oblique Jun 14, 13:49 2
        
        Their 3 and Y start at the average new car price in the US. - TWuG Jun 14, 14:07 1
        
        A year ago average was 40k now it is 47k. - Spawn Jun 14, 14:40

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Decline, it will be the better part of a decade before Tesla is upset as the EV leader, if then. So, yes, competition is coming, but

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