In response to
"Sabato has a net of 36 toss-up House seats. That’s the over-under line for me on GOP gains."
by
Will Hunting
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I've also got a poli-sci degree, and data analysis is, in my view, premature at the moment. The reason that we typically have these wave elections in -- (edited)
Posted by
pmb (aka pmb)
Jun 24 '22, 08:07
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the midterms is that the opposition is simply more motivated. Elections are about turnout more than just about anything in a contestable election. Ordinarily the economy would simply motivate the opposition and depress the party in power. The unknown here is the impact that the party in power feels like it is still under siege by a democracy that's barely holding together and a supreme court that is attacking previously won rights. You may be right, but I'm still waiting until we know what the races are and get some more current data. I think there will be more energy on the left than typically in these elections, but I'm really not sure how much yet.
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