|
In response to
"Folks like reading about baseball, right? Here's a story about Camden Yards and tax breaks for billionaire team owners. -- (link)"
by
Beryllium
|
here you go
Posted by
Beaker (aka Anniebecca)
Aug 8 '22, 08:52
|
Kiley McDaniel
ESPN MLB Insider
Facebook
Twitter
Facebook Messenger
Pinterest
Email
print
Between the recent MLB draft, trade deadline and players graduating to the majors, there has been so much movement since I wrote our preseason prospect lists that it's time to update my farm system rankings again.
For reference, the dollar values are based on a study by FanGraphs that took the expected big league output on average by each tier of prospect, converted that to dollars using teams' free agency spending history, and then subtracted the projected salary they would be paid in the big leagues to yield a surplus value, aka how much a team would pay to acquire the player's six-plus years of control before free agency.
Since the dollar values are lower than you'd think at the bottom of the lists ($1 million or less) and higher than you'd guess at the top (the No. 1 prospect in baseball, Mets C Francisco Alvarez, is worth $112 million), I've stuck to mostly referencing players who are closer to the top of the list as they'll have the most impact on where each team ranks.
Preseason system rankings | Preseason top 100
1. Baltimore Orioles - $351 million
Preseason Value: $344 million (1st)
The O's seem to be treading water on the farm from those two numbers, but they've made solid progress because they lost $120 million of value to graduations, with the vast majority from the top prospect in baseball, Adley Rutschman.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Did your team ace the MLB draft? Kiley McDaniel's recap for all 30 teams
17dKiley McDaniel
Way-too-early 2023 MLB draft rankings: Kiley McDaniel's initial top 50 prospects
10dKiley McDaniel
Graduated MLB prospect stock watch: Which rookies are rising and falling since their debuts?
46dKiley McDaniel
Improvement by holdover prospects accounts for $66 million. Over half of that comes from the meteoric rise of SS Gunnar Henderson, who is now in the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. Most of the rest of the gap between those two numbers is made up by the draft class ($54 million), headlined by SS Jackson Holliday. In trades, they've added close to $10 million in value, with RHP Seth Johnson, LHP Cade Povich and RHP Chayce McDermott the headliners.
2. Cleveland Guardians - $317 million
Preseason Value - $259 million (9th)
The Guardians haven't subtracted any notable prospects in trades this year and lost only CF Steven Kwan to graduation to the big leagues. They've had a number of players rise this season (RHP Daniel Espino before an injury, RHP Gavin Williams, RF George Valera, RHP Tanner Bibee) and had one of the better drafts, landing RF Chase DeLauter, RHP Justin Campbell, LHP Parker Messick, RHP Jacob Zibin, CF Joe Lampe and LHP Jackson Humphries.
3. Tampa Bay Rays - $291 million
Preseason Value - $314 million (2nd)
The machine rolls on. The Rays have graduated 2B Vidal Brujan and RF Josh Lowe from their Top 100 corps. They had another deep draft (CF Brock Jones, CF Ryan Cermak, 2B Chandler Simpson), even with head-scratching first-rounder 1B Xavier Isaac.
The Rays characteristically continue to shuffle the deck with roster moves, but RHP Seth Johnson (who is out for the season for Tommy John surgery) and C Ford Proctor were the only subtractions of note at the deadline. Injured Shane Baz is now the top prospect and close to graduating while Curtis Mead and Carson Williams lead the arrow-up crowd and Greg Jones is among those who have been disappointing.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - $291 million
Preseason Value - $313 million (3rd)
The Pirates have graduated a number of players from their preseason list: SS Oneil Cruz, RHP Roansy Contreras, SS Diego Castillo, 2B Rodolfo Castro and LF Jack Suwinski.
I loved their draft haul, headlined by new top prospect 2B Termarr Johnson, bolstered by RHP Thomas Harrington, LHP Hunter Barco, LHP Michael Kennedy and RHP/3B Jack Brannigan. The Pirates were largely quiet at the deadline aside from grabbing 3B Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in a deal for Jose Quintana. There haven't been giant jumps forward at the top of the system, but C Endy Rodriguez has continued hitting and was bumped up to a 50 FV.
5. New York Mets - $286 million
Preseason Value - $196 million (18th)
It's important to note that the very top prospects in baseball are valued at what seems on its face to be a wild amount of money, but the track record justifies it. Francisco Alvarez is now the top prospect in the game at a value of $112 million and if he were to graduate from prospect status tomorrow, the Mets would fall from fifth to 21st.
MLB Trade Deadline
Which stars moved? Which contenders made the biggest splash? Here's everything that went down before the deadline.
MLB trade deadline tracker »
Grades for every deal »
With a solid draft class (C Kevin Parada, SS Jett Williams, RHP Blade Tidwell, 2B Nick Morabito), no notable graduations, no big trades that sent prospects out (call it the Pete Crow-Armstrong cooling effect), and Alvarez moving from ninth to first (appreciating $57 million in the process) in the Top 100, that makes a solid recipe for an appreciating farm system. OF Alex Ramirez is the other notable riser.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers - $285 million
Preseason Value - $260 million (8th)
The other machine rolls on. The Dodgers haven't had any notable graduates this year, but have a number of top prospects who are about to reach the big leagues. With limited draft capital this year, they did well to grab C Dalton Rushing with their top pick and add some solid depth pieces.
Los Angeles didn't make any big, bold moves at the trade deadline, but swapped SS Alex De Jesus for rising RHP Nick Frasso along with flipping RHP Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo. The top of the farm has largely held serve, moving up a bit as players ranked ahead from other clubs graduate, with some arrow-up prospects in the second tier such as RHP Gavin Stone, CF Jose Ramos and 2B Jorbit Vivas.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks - $277 million
Preseason Value - $277 million (5th)
The D-backs have amazingly stood exactly pat in terms of farm value, despite lots of movement since the season began. They've graduated a strong class already with CF Alek Thomas, SS Geraldo Perdomo, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RF Jake McCarthy and RHP Corbin Martin. They brought in a strong draft class headlined by my top player in the pool, CF Druw Jones, bolstered by potential quick-movers in RHP Landon Sims, 1B Ivan Melendez, LHP Nate Savino and RHP Dylan Ray. They had a mostly quiet deadline with 3B Emmanuel Rivera the biggest addition. The other big story here is the post-shoulder-surgery rise of CF Corbin Carroll from wait-and-see-but-still-top-25 to undisputed top five. There may be another wave of talent showing up in the desert in 2023.
8. New York Yankees - $276 million
Preseason Value - $270 million (7th)
The Yankees have also been very busy, sending out a number of 40-FV-or-better prospects via trade (deep breath): LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Hayden Wesneski, 2B Cooper Bowman, RHP Beck Way, LHP J.P. Sears, RHP Chandler Champlain and LHP T.J. Sikkema. They added one more of that type in RHP Clayton Beeter as the return for Joey Gallo after sending out (less deep breath) 2B Josh Smith, 3B Ezequiel Duran, 2B Trevor Hauver and RHP Glenn Otto for Gallo last year.
Big ups to the Yankees drafting in recent years; all of those players were from outside of the top 50 overall picks and some were outside of the top five rounds. You don't always have to wait for years and produce big leaguers to find value from a draft.
The system has seen some appreciation from SS Anthony Volpe and C Austin Wells up top, while lower down has seen gains from RHP Will Warren and RHP Sean Hermann from last year's draft class and RHP Luis Serna from the international group. RHP Clarke Schmidt was the only notable graduate. There was another solid draft class headlined by RF Spencer Jones and RHP Drew Thorpe, but there are probably a couple of nice later-round finds in this class, too.
9. Cincinnati Reds - $273 million
Preseason Value - $167 million (20th)
Cincy has done a solid job of adding talent as the rebuild continues. I'm still a bit confused how Cam Collier got all the way down to the 18th overall pick, as a player who immediately goes on the back end of my Top 100 list. The rest of the draft had solid depth, while the trades since Opening Day have yielded a haul: SS Noelvi Marte, SS Edwin Arroyo, 2B Spencer Steer, RHP Connor Phillips, SS Victor Acosta, RHP Levi Stoudt, 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and LHP Steven Hajjar.
The rise of SS Elly De La Cruz has continued into the top quarter of the Top 100, making him arguably the most exciting talent in the entire minor leagues. The graduating class has already supplemented the big league team with RHP Hunter Greene, RHP Graham Ashcraft and CF TJ Friedl, with LHP Nick Lodolo set to join them soon.
10. Washington Nationals - $268 million
Preseason Value - $162 million (22nd)
Trade a generational talent and at least you'll improve the farm system a bit. LHP MacKenzie Gore has graduated from prospect status, but he is an impact talent. SS C.J. Abrams is as well and will probably graduate in the coming months, while CF Robert Hassell, RF James Wood and RHP Jarlin Susana will help to headline this system for the coming year(s).
Continuing with the huge upside trend, the Nats took the highest available upside with their top pick in the draft: CF Elijah Green. SS Brady House and RHP Cade Cavalli were the two best prospects entering the year and have largely held serve. The Nats also graduated C Keibert Ruiz early this season.
11. Texas Rangers - $266 million
Preseason Value - $250 million (10th)
The Rangers made a lot of noise last winter, spending $500 million in free agency, then had a loud draft despite missing some picks due to that splurge. RHP Kumar Rocker and RHP Brock Porter were two first-round talents, while CF Chandler Pollard, CF Tommy Specht and RHP Luis Ramirez were nice finds with limited resources.
The deadline this year was mostly quiet, but they did manage to add rising LHP Antoine Kelly while graduating only RHP Glenn Otto thus far -- though a number of players are close to graduating. 3B Josh Jung had shoulder surgery right after my offseason Top 100 went live, and RHP Jack Leiter has had a rocky season while RHP Owen White continues to improve.
12. Miami Marlins - $265 million
Preseason Value - $289 million (4th)
The Marlins have had a number of movers from the offseason list. RHP Eury Perez continues to look like one of the best pitching prospects in the game, while RHP Max Meyer will need Tommy John surgery, RHP Sixto Sanchez has been slow returning from a shoulder issue and SS Kahlil Watson has struggled more than expected.
LHP Dax Fulton, SS Jose Salas, SS Yiddi Cappe and RF J.J. Bleday have had positive seasons. Top pick RF Jacob Berry isn't the most exciting, but second pick RHP Jacob Miller was a great value and RHP Karson Milbrandt is an intriguing upside bet. The trade deadline was mostly quiet, but the Marlins did add SS Jordan Groshans. LHP Braxton Garrett and RHP Cody Poteet are the notable graduates.
13. Boston Red Sox - $249 million
Preseason Value - $210 million (16th)
Want to feel old?
Your favorite 2004 Red Sox player's son is playing for the Brockton Rox this summer. Joon Lee »
The Red Sox had a confusing trade deadline, holding J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, trading Christian Vazquez and Jake Diekman, and adding Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. The Hosmer deal included flipping longtime prospect LHP Jay Groome to San Diego for 2B Max Ferguson and CF Corey Rosier while Vazquez netted Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu; all four added prospects are more depth pieces than impact types. The draft class was solid, led by prep position players SS Mikey Romero, RF Roman Anthony, C Brooks Brannon and SS Cutter Coffey. Three former prep position player top picks -- SS Marcelo Mayer, 2B Nick Yorke and 1B Triston Casas -- still pace the system.
14. San Francisco Giants - $235 million
Preseason Value - $240 million (11th)
The Giants had a low-key deadline and have graduated only C Joey Bart, so there hasn't been a ton of natural movement in their system. 3B Marco Luciano and LHP Kyle Harrison continue moving up at the top of the system, and I like the two lefties they took with their top two picks in the draft: Reggie Crawford (who was announced as a two-way player on draft night) and Carson Whisenhunt.
15. St. Louis Cardinals - $232 million
Preseason Value - $218 million (14th)
The Cardinals have been sneaky effective in recent drafts and had the pieces to get a Juan Soto deal done in large part due to that. But they were ultimately low-key at the deadline in terms of dealing prospects.
They've graduated 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Juan Yepez and RHP Andre Pallante this year but have also had a number of rising prospects to make up for those losses: SS Masyn Winn, RHP Gordon Graceffo, RF Alec Burleson and RHP Tink Hence. Their draft this year was headlined by three effective college lefties who are all likely big leaguers: Cooper Hjerpe, Brycen Mautz and Pete Hansen.
16. Colorado Rockies - $224 million
Preseason Value - $152 million (23rd)
The Rockies were the only team to not make a trade at the deadline and continue to be confusing for the rest of the industry to understand. They haven't graduated anyone notable and had a solid draft class (RF Jordan Beck, RF Sterlin Thompson, RHP Jackson Cox), even if top pick RHP Gabriel Hughes seemed like a bit of a reach. The big movement here is the impressive arrow-up moves into the Top 100 of shortstops Ezequiel Tovar and Adael Amador, joining RF Zac Veen and C Drew Romo.
17. Oakland Athletics - $216 million
Preseason Value - $125 million (28th)
Oakland's list has had a lot of movement from the middle of the winter until now, maybe the most of any team other than the Padres. They graduated CF Cristian Pache, RP Daulton Jefferies, LHP A.J. Puk and 3B Kevin Smith. They drafted well, landing college bats C Daniel Susac, RF Colby Thomas and RF Elliot Clark along with upside-swing prep CF Henry Bolte and sleeper RHP Jacob Watters.
They haven't had a huge breakout rise, but their Top 100 types have mostly crept up the list as other players graduate. On the trade front they've added a lot, mostly from the Montas/Trivino Yankees deal: LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Luis Medina, SS Euribiel Angeles, 2B Cooper Bowman and LHP J.P. Sears.
18. Chicago Cubs - $215 million
Preseason Value - $183 million (19th)
The Cubs pulled a bit of a surprise by taking Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton with the seventh overall pick this year after he wasn't really a top-two-rounder a month before the draft. The rest of the notable players from their draft (LHP Jackson Ferris, SS Chris Paciolla, RHP Nazier Mule) were upside prep picks.
Chicago had a confusing deadline, holding some players widely expected to be traded but adding RHP Hayden Wesneski and LHP Ben Brown in smaller deals. The farm is starting to trickle into the big leagues, with 3B Chris Morel, 1B Alfonso Rivas and RHP Michael Rucker graduating, but the impact talent is still a year or two away, with CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and CF Kevin Alcantara the two big risers among the Top 100 brigade.
19. Toronto Blue Jays - $207 million
Preseason Value - $164 million (21st)
The Jays looked primed to make some bigger deadline moves but ended up dealing only SS Jordan Groshans and RHP Nick Frasso from the prospect ranks. C Gabriel Moreno will likely lose his prospect status later this year but is only about halfway there at this point, with no other notable graduations from the system on the horizon.
I love what Toronto did in the draft, adding LHP Brandon Barriera and 3B Tucker Toman from the prep ranks and 3B Cade Doughty and SS Josh Kasevich from the college side. LHP Ricky Tiedemann is the huge riser, appreciating by $25 million (third-rounder to middle of the Top 100 in one year) while Moreno and SS Orelvis Martinez have steadily risen in the top 20 overall as other top prospects graduate.
20. Minnesota Twins - $188 million
Preseason Value - $199 million (17th)
The State of the Starting Pitcher
"It's a dying breed. And it sucks." Jeff Passan goes inside the decline of the starting pitcher -- and what it means for baseball's future.
Story »
The Twins continued moving their chips to the middle for this year, adding Tyler Mahle (for 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, LHP Steven Hajjar, 2B Spencer Steer) and Jorge Lopez (for LHP Cade Povich, RHP Yennier Cano) by trading from their deep system. They've also subtracted via graduation 3B Jose Miranda, RHP Joe Ryan and CF Gilberto Celestino. SS Royce Lewis is missing another season due to a knee injury, but there are also some additions and positive news. The draft class is strong, headlined by 3B Brooks Lee, LHP Connor Prielipp and SS Tanner Schobel. RHP Jhoan Duran has been excellent in the big leagues this year, while RF Emmanuel Rodriguez has turned strong exit velos into a breakout season and RHP Marco Raya is also delivering on his promise.
21. Milwaukee Brewers - $155 million
Preseason Value - $129 million (25th)
The Brewers have had some old-school improvement by position players hitting their way up the charts. CF Jackson Chourio is the big riser with some contact concerns between him and the top quarter of the Top 100. I loved their first two picks in last year's draft (CF Sal Frelick and 2B Tyler Black). I liked what they did with their first two picks this year, landing SS Eric Brown and RHP Jacob Misiorowski, with 2B Robert Moore as a solid add-low. LHP Aaron Ashby was the notable graduate, while LHP Antoine Kelly was traded to get more bullpen help to offset the loss of Josh Hader. The Hader deal landed two solid prospects in LHP Robert Gasser (could be a big leaguer next year) and CF Esteury Ruiz (is already a big leaguer).
22. Kansas City Royals - $147 million
Preseason Value - $225 million (12th)
The Royals graduated a number of notable prospects this year, including their top two: SS Bobby Witt Jr., C M.J. Melendez, RF Kyle Isbel and RHP Jon Heasley. They added three pitchers from the Yankees (RHP Beck Way, RHP Chandler Champlain, LHP T.J. Sikkema) for Andrew Benintendi, added a reliever (Wyatt Mills) for Carlos Santana, swapped a prospect (3B Emmanuel Rivera) to land Luke Weaver, and traded away a comp pick to add Drew Waters and Andrew Hoffman from Atlanta.
1B Vinnie Pasquantino has been arrow-up this year while returns have been solid on the top players in last year's draft: LHP Frank Mozzicato and RHP Ben Kudrna. This year's draft class included two college bats up top (RF Gavin Cross and 3B Cayden Wallace) followed by solid college pitcher depth and an intriguing two-way prep talent in Austin Charles.
23. Philadelphia Phillies - $138 million
Preseason Value - $130 million (24th)
The Phils graduated top prospect SS Bryson Stott but saw solid gains from their previous two top picks: RHP Mick Abel and RHP Andrew Painter. This year's draft class went to a new demographic with CF Justin Crawford, backed by RF Gabriel Rincones and RHP Alex MacFarlane.
Deadline deals for Noah Syndergaard (CF Mickey Moniak, RF Jadiel Sanchez), Brandon Marsh (C Logan O'Hoppe) and David Robertson (LHP Ben Brown) cost prospect capital.
24. Detroit Tigers - $129 million
Preseason Value - $221 million (13th)
The Tigers spent big money this offseason and had their top prospects showing up in the big leagues, but it all landed with a big thud as Detroit sits near the bottom of the AL standings and had a quiet deadline. CF Riley Greene, 1B Spencer Torkelson and RHP Alex Faedo are the graduates this year, though in recent years potential cornerstone arms in Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal all graduated, which is how the system has fallen this far. In terms of positives, I liked 2B Jace Jung and SS Peyton Graham as their top two picks and SS Colt Keith made the jump into Top 100 territory this year, but early returns on Jackson Jobe have been mixed at best. The organization's hopes are now on players not eligible for this list anymore.
25. Seattle Mariners - $108 million
Preseason Value - $271 million (6th)
While Preller will Preller, Jerry will also Jerry! GM Jerry Dipoto cashed in a lot of prospect capital in the Luis Castillo deal (Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore) after graduating some very notable talent earlier in the year (Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby), along with early-season trades that cost Wyatt Mills (to get Carlos Santana) and Connor Phillips (to finish the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal). I like what the Mariners did in the draft with SS Cole Young, 3B Tyler Locklear and RHP Walter Ford all now in the team's Top 10.
26. Houston Astros - $97 million
Preseason Value - $128 million (26th)
The main loss here is losing SS Jeremy Pena to graduating to the big leagues. They added some solid players in the draft (CF Drew Gilbert, CF Jacob Melton, RF Ryan Clifford) to offset some losses at the trade deadline (RHP Chayce McDermott, SS Enmanuel Valdez, RF Wilyer Abreu) to add Christian Vasquez and Trey Mancini for the stretch run.
27. Los Angeles Angels - $96 million
Preseason Value: $91 million (29th)
Graduating LHP Reid Detmers is the big loss here, but he was replaced as the lone Top 100 talent in the system by former Phillies catcher Logan O'Hoppe -- who was added at the deadline for Brandon Marsh. The Halos also added CF Mickey Moniak in the Noah Syndergaard deal and LHP Tucker Davidson in the deal for RHP Raisiel Iglesias. They also scooped up a couple of my favorite players in the draft in SS Zach Neto and RHP Ben Joyce, along with intriguing upside gambles in RHP Jake Madden and RHP Caden Dana.
28. San Diego Padres - $81 million
Preseason Value - $212 million (15th)
Juan Soto traded to the Padres
Juan Soto is headed to San Diego in one of the biggest MLB trades ever. Here's what you need to know about the deal.
What it means for the Padres -- and the rest of MLB »
Grades for Padres & Nationals »
Preller will always Preller. The switch has been turned to "win and win now" for a little while, but even then nobody was expecting to trade hauls for both Josh Hader and Juan Soto at the deadline, along with Brandon Drury. That gutted the top of the system, but a strong draft this year (RHP Dylan Lesko, LHP Robby Snelling, RHP Adam Mazur, RHP Henry Williams, C Lamar King), the remnants of a strong draft last year (SS Jackson Merrill and ... well just Merrill is left) and a solid international program (Samuel Zavala headlines that group) give some hope that they can generate real prospect value in the next year or so for either the next trade or to fill the next hole internally.
29. Chicago White Sox - $76 million
Preseason Value: $63 million (30th)
Last year's first-round pick SS Colson Montgomery has taken a step forward, appreciating over $10 million in value, which had made up much of the difference this year after a quiet trade deadline. They added three solid arms in the draft (LHP Noah Schultz, RHP Peyton Pallette, RHP Jonathan Cannon) and there were some modest (i.e. one notch) gains from players like 3B Bryan Ramos and RHP Norge Vera with 3B Jake Burger the only notable graduation.
30. Atlanta Braves - $72 million
Preseason Value - $128 million (27th)
The Braves have a solid excuse for being here, as they graduated CF Michael Harris and RHP Spencer Strider this season -- two impact talents picked later in recent drafts. They traded Drew Waters and Andrew Hoffmann to get an extra pick in what ended up being a solid draft haul (righties Owen Murphy, J.R. Ritchie, Cole Phillips, Adam Maier and Seth Keller). There has also been some notable appreciation, with Vaughn Grissom adding $10 million to his value in a breakout year. RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver also made a jump to the second-ranked prospect in the system.
College draftees Dylan Dodd, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jared Shuster have also been arrow-up this year. With only Grissom in the Top 100 conversation, good-not-great farm depth and a big league team that's contending (aka subtracting through the year, adding only at the draft) that's a formula to be in the bottom five of farm rankings until multiple players make moves into the Top 100 conversation. The high-upside draft class is one that could solve that equation.
|
Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.
|
|