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In response to
"The E.U. agrees to place sanctions on Iran for supplying Russia with drones."
by
crash davis
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Ukraine’s advances have limited Russia’s options for a smooth pullback.
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Ukrainian military commanders in the Kherson region on Wednesday described small combat gains in recent days, but no dramatic breakthroughs that would prompt a move by Russian occupation officials to evacuate civilians. Week by week, however, Ukrainian advances have been closing the window for Russia for an orderly pullback from the western bank of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian howitzers are now nearly within range of the bridges and river ports over the Dnipro, which Russian troops would have to cross to retreat eastward toward Russia, military commanders said. Those guns could make a pullback bloody and chaotic for tens of thousands of Russian soldiers now on the western bank.
Once in range, the howitzers could deliver round-the-clock barrages onto these escape routes, in contrast to the intermittent fire from long-range rockets now. Advancing howitzers to within range of the Dnipro bridges has been a war aim for the Ukrainian army since spring.
A Ukrainian military intelligence officer serving in the Kherson region who asked to speak on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said he anticipated the Russians would withdraw rather than fight on.
“They will leave Kherson themselves,” he said. “We created such conditions.”
It was not immediately clear how many residents would heed a call by local pro-Kremlin officials to evacuate or whether the evacuations would be voluntary. Many civilians have already fled the region.
Ukraine has accused Russia of forcibly relocating thousands of adults and children from occupied areas to Russian territory since the war began under the guise of evacuating civilians from danger.
Rights groups have said Russia is forcibly assimilating deported Ukrainian children. The Russian announcements could be catering to a domestic audience inside Russia, she said.
“They want to prepare a demonstrative picture for their propaganda media that locals in the Kherson region are afraid” of the Ukrainian military, Ms. Humeniuk said.
The evacuation of a portion of the civilians could telegraph plans for widespread bombardments in the Kherson region by the Russian army, the Ukrainian military governor of the Mykolaiv region, which borders the Kherson region, wrote in a post on the Telegram messaging app.
The Russian army has been distributing leaflets in Kherson city encouraging residents to flee, according to photographs posted on social media.
One shows parents with a small boy, all smiles, with a Russian flag in the background. The text says, “Save your family, move to the eastern bank.”
Residents have also received messages on their phones that urge them to flee the city. Serhiy, a retiree living in the city of Kherson said in a telephone interview on condition his last name not be revealed for security reasons.
“A slow panic is setting in,” he said, as the prospect for a battle for control of the city looms. “People are quietly happy the Ukrainian army is close but don’t know how it will end for us.”
Maria Varenikova contributed reporting.
— Andrew E. Kramer
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